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Post by zuolun on Nov 13, 2014 1:44:26 GMT 7
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Post by stockpicker on Nov 22, 2014 10:33:07 GMT 7
The World's stock market was taken by surprise by PBOC's 0.25% cut in interest rate They all responded with a rally except the Nasdaq Bank stock which fell about 0.68% after having climbed closed to 1% at the start of the trading session. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BANK&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p97317550176 One could not stop but wondering what went wrong? There were news that BanCorp lose the appeal for a few millions $ fine and BAC has some bad news but these were peanut news. When one analyses further, one cannot help but understand that the Chinese Banking system is totally different from those banking system in the West which are free to invest in many other products including derivatives and stocks. The interest rate derivatives are especially sensitive to rate cuts. The Chinese banks are diligently controlled and earn an honest living from interest rates. To the banks, a rate cut will mean a lost of revenue. No doubt, the other industries will benefit from the rate cut but when there is a liquidity trap, these money easing measure may not always work. This rate cut is the first since 7 June 2012. Looking back at SSEC, we got the following picture SSEC lost about 10% after the rate cut in 2012 was announced. These could be because the market perceived that China would face serious downturns and hence, needed an interest rate cut which did not benefit the industries, especially the banks.
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Post by stockpicker on Dec 11, 2014 9:19:21 GMT 7
Do you use yield curve for your market timing? Many have used such curve because in the past, when yield curve inverted, it signals a recession is coming because investors buy 30-year bonds or long term bonds and shunt short term bonds for investment. This is true for the recessions in 2000, 2008 as well as the rest of the recessions in the past. Check the following dynamic yield curve. stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.phpWhen one look at the present yield curve, it looks very healthy as investors still buying up 30-year bond and short term bonds in moderation and in right proportion. There is no panic of buying the 30-year bond as safe heaven. However, some Analysts believe that one can no longer use the yield curve to judge market timing because Ben Bernanke had changed all perspectives about investment risk. Bernake had lowered the interest to such extend that investors no longer buy and sell Government bonds. Further, the QEs have flooded the market with so much liquidity that investors can borrow at almost nothing and use it to buy high yielding assets overseas or play high leverage derivatives that can turn them into overnight millionaires. They have lost the fear and see no risk even if US economy is going for a spin. The only fear they have at the present moment is the rise in the interest rate. When interest rate rises, they will feel the pain. The immediately reaction will be to pull back the investments, sell the derivatives and high yield but risky assets in overseas... what are those to follow will be up for speculation. It is therefore good not to use yield curve for the timing of the market.
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Post by oldman on Dec 19, 2014 6:24:09 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Dec 20, 2014 11:19:41 GMT 7
SNB Takes Snap From The Fed And Markets Run With The Ball — 18 Dec 2014
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Post by oldman on Dec 24, 2014 4:47:41 GMT 7
Record-setting day: Dow's first finish above 18,000 - 24 Dec 2014 The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average set records in a fifth day of gains as investors cheered data showing the U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter by the most in 11 years.
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Post by zuolun on Dec 26, 2014 8:20:59 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Jan 2, 2015 5:15:46 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Jan 18, 2015 7:38:10 GMT 7
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Post by oldman on Feb 21, 2015 9:49:05 GMT 7
Why this tech party isn't like 1999 - 21 Feb 2015 No, this tech party doesn't appear destined to end in tears. That's because today's tech stocks look all grown up. They're more fundamentally sound than their 1999 peers, and their valuations are based on something the dotcom stocks of the past never had: real earnings.
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Post by zuolun on Mar 9, 2015 6:01:37 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Mar 25, 2015 6:58:19 GMT 7
DJ (2009 to 24 Mar 2015) ~ Rising Wedge; negative divergence bet. the value of the DOW and the MACD
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Post by zuolun on Mar 27, 2015 1:19:48 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Apr 9, 2015 7:49:55 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on May 30, 2015 5:53:06 GMT 7
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