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Post by zuolun on Nov 25, 2013 8:38:44 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Dec 6, 2013 15:18:49 GMT 7
SMRT — A penny stock in the making; interim TP S$1.185SMRT as at 20 Aug 2013
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SMRT
Dec 12, 2013 22:47:39 GMT 7
oldman likes this
Post by zuolun on Dec 12, 2013 22:47:39 GMT 7
SMRT — A penny stock in the making; TP S$1.06SMRT as at 6 Dec 2013
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Post by zuolun on Dec 13, 2013 7:46:17 GMT 7
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Post by me200 on Dec 13, 2013 8:06:57 GMT 7
Just sharing... I posted my view on SMRT in other forum. Now it becomes nearer to my target price. » Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:27 pm
Just sharing .....
SMRT had a -ve profit for Q4FY13. However, the FY13 profit still positve. Its FY13 EPS will be < 6.3 cents; down ~20% compare to FY12.
IMO, Mr. Market will dump the more shares and push the price downward. Base on TA, it is continuos down trend since May2010.
If one wish tho invest when the PER is ~15X, the share price willl be $0.945 (15 * 0.063). Will this happen? For me, I will monitor its development closely and wait patiently. It may come or may not.
Not vested, yet.
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SMRT
Dec 13, 2013 8:20:24 GMT 7
me200 likes this
Post by odie on Dec 13, 2013 8:20:24 GMT 7
Uob per is 11 times I think smrt's one will be 10 to 11 times
11 x 0.063=0.693
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Post by zuolun on Dec 13, 2013 8:51:22 GMT 7
Uob per is 11 times I think smrt's one will be 10 to 11 times 11 x 0.063=0.693 As at 12 Dec 2013, SMRT's weekly chart had a long black marubozu, which signaled that one of the longterm funds had just unloaded millions of shares onto retail buyers. When more and more longterm funds continue to distribute, i.e. supply > demand, SMRT should be racing to the bottom with plenty of long black marubozu dropping like bird shit (applying Newton's law of gravity). SMRT's chart pattern suggests that TP S$0.60 or lower is not impossible. (For TP to materialise, the duration is 6 - 8 qtrs.) Just sharing... I posted my view on SMRT in other forum. Now it becomes nearer to my target price. » Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:27 pm
Just sharing .....
SMRT had a -ve profit for Q4FY13. However, the FY13 profit still positve. Its FY13 EPS will be < 6.3 cents; down ~20% compare to FY12.
IMO, Mr. Market will dump the more shares and push the price downward. Base on TA, it is continuos down trend since May2010.
If one wish tho invest when the PER is ~15X, the share price willl be $0.945 (15 * 0.063). Will this happen? For me, I will monitor its development closely and wait patiently. It may come or may not.
Not vested, yet.
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Post by me200 on Dec 13, 2013 9:39:00 GMT 7
Base on last 2009 GFC, its PER is ~15X. In fact, its price fell ~25% as compare to STI down 60% during GFC. SMRT was STI component stock then. IMO, PER15 is reasonable value. PER10-11 is nice to have. Uob per is 11 times I think smrt's one will be 10 to 11 times 11 x 0.063=0.693 As at 12 Dec 2013, SMRT's weekly chart had a long black marubozu, which signaled that one of the longterm funds had just unloaded millions of shares onto retail buyers. When more and more longterm funds continue to distribute, i.e. supply > demand, SMRT should be racing to the bottom with plenty of long black marubozu dropping like bird shit (applying Newton's law of gravity). SMRT's chart pattern suggests that TP S$0.60 or lower is not impossible. (For TP to materialise, the duration is 6 - 8 qtrs.) Just sharing... I posted my view on SMRT in other forum. Now it becomes nearer to my target price. » Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:27 pm
Just sharing .....
SMRT had a -ve profit for Q4FY13. However, the FY13 profit still positve. Its FY13 EPS will be < 6.3 cents; down ~20% compare to FY12.
IMO, Mr. Market will dump the more shares and push the price downward. Base on TA, it is continuos down trend since May2010.
If one wish tho invest when the PER is ~15X, the share price willl be $0.945 (15 * 0.063). Will this happen? For me, I will monitor its development closely and wait patiently. It may come or may not.
Not vested, yet.
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Post by zuolun on Dec 13, 2013 9:54:55 GMT 7
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Post by candy188 on Dec 13, 2013 11:30:23 GMT 7
Hi me200, thank you for sharing the Fair value with reasonable margin of safety utilising FA. Would like to clarify, how did you derive the EPS figure of $0.063 since 2013 EPS is only $0.0548. Is $0.063 based on forecasted EPS for 2014? Quote me200,"If one wish tho invest when the PER is ~15X, the share price willl be $0.945 (15 * 0.063)." Buffett’s Most Profitable Deals Good Businesses At Fair Prices Or Vice Versa?March 13, 2013 “More than 50 years ago, Charlie told me that it was far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price. Despite the compelling logic of his position, I have sometimes reverted to my old habit of bargain-hunting, with results ranging from tolerable to terrible. Fortunately, my mistakes have usually occurred when I made smaller purchases. Our large acquisitions have generally worked out well and, in a few cases, more than well.” Base on last 2009 GFC, its PER is ~15X. In fact, its price fell ~25% as compare to STI down 60% during GFC. SMRT was STI component stock then. IMO, PER15 is Reasonable Value.
PER10-11 is Nice to have. As at 12 Dec 2013, SMRT's weekly chart had a long black marubozu, which signaled that one of the longterm funds had just unloaded millions of shares onto retail buyers. When more and more longterm funds continue to distribute, i.e. supply > demand, SMRT should be racing to the bottom with plenty of long black marubozu dropping like bird shit (applying Newton's law of gravity). SMRT's chart pattern suggests that TP S$0.60 or lower is not impossible. (For TP to materialise, the duration is 6 - 8 qtrs.)
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SMRT
Dec 13, 2013 11:56:31 GMT 7
oldman likes this
Post by zuolun on Dec 13, 2013 11:56:31 GMT 7
odie,
SMRT's share price still has the last catalyst to impact the current strong downtrend and the best one is none other than nationalisation. In other words, when a listed-company makes good profit, the shareholders benefit but when a listed-company makes losses and/or gets into sticky problems, get the government to fix it, i.e. bail out the listed-company with tax payers' money, similar pattern like OLAM.
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Post by me200 on Dec 13, 2013 12:40:56 GMT 7
Hi Candy, Refer to below EPS chart, I assume that SMRT Q4Fy2013 EPS is 0. Hence the 'forecast' EPS is <6.3 cent. However, SMRT Q4FY2013 is -0.7842 cents and thus FY2013 EPS is 5.5 cents. Base on 1Q and 2Q FY2014 EPS, I estimate (agak agak only) should be < 5.5 cents. Unless govt agrees to revise the ride fair upward, then we should see more earnings. p.s. Bus service is bleeding severely despite revenue increase.Hi me200, thank you for sharing the Fair value with reasonable margin of safety utilising FA. Would like to clarify, how did you derive the EPS figure of $0.063 since 2013 EPS is only $0.0548. Is $0.063 based on forecasted EPS for 2014? Quote me200,"If one wish tho invest when the PER is ~15X, the share price willl be $0.945 (15 * 0.063)." Buffett’s Most Profitable Deals Good Businesses At Fair Prices Or Vice Versa?March 13, 2013 “More than 50 years ago, Charlie told me that it was far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price. Despite the compelling logic of his position, I have sometimes reverted to my old habit of bargain-hunting, with results ranging from tolerable to terrible. Fortunately, my mistakes have usually occurred when I made smaller purchases. Our large acquisitions have generally worked out well and, in a few cases, more than well.” Base on last 2009 GFC, its PER is ~15X. In fact, its price fell ~25% as compare to STI down 60% during GFC. SMRT was STI component stock then. IMO, PER15 is Reasonable Value.
PER10-11 is Nice to have.
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SMRT
Dec 13, 2013 12:44:11 GMT 7
Post by zuolun on Dec 13, 2013 12:44:11 GMT 7
Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Base on last 2009 GFC, its PER is ~15X. In fact, its price fell ~25% as compare to STI down 60% during GFC. SMRT was STI component stock then. IMO, PER15 is reasonable value. PER10-11 is nice to have.
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Post by me200 on Dec 13, 2013 13:04:49 GMT 7
Fully agreed. No dispute on that. Like TA, we have to base on our best judgement as no one can predict what Mr. Market mood. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Base on last 2009 GFC, its PER is ~15X. In fact, its price fell ~25% as compare to STI down 60% during GFC. SMRT was STI component stock then. IMO, PER15 is reasonable value. PER10-11 is nice to have.
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SMRT
Dec 13, 2013 13:31:10 GMT 7
oldman likes this
Post by zuolun on Dec 13, 2013 13:31:10 GMT 7
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