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Post by zuolun on May 1, 2015 19:14:02 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on May 17, 2015 7:22:28 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on May 27, 2015 6:49:37 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Jun 10, 2015 5:54:38 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Jun 15, 2015 6:29:49 GMT 7
Bond rout spells disaster for stock markets as global credit kraken awakens ~ 14 Jun 2015 Finra summons banks and asset managers over market fears ~ 14 Jun 2015 So why no bankers criminally charged personally? ~ 14 Jun 2015 Ukraine will ‘default’ if it misses $75m Eurobond payment – Russia ~ 12 Jun 2015 Worst bond crash in almost 30 years is early warning of turmoil to come ~ 12 Jun 2015 Investment focus: As liquidity shrinks, bond trading becomes a grind ~ 12 Jun 2015 To solve liquidity drought, investors try to be future(s) perfect ~ 12 Jun 2015 EU prepares for worst as Tsipras drives Greece to the brink ~ 12 Jun 2015 Bond market liquidity dominates conversation ~ 12 Jun 2015 U.S. dollar continues to rise on economic data ~ 12 Jun 2015 Rising rates not always a win for bondholders ~ 12 Jun 2015 Mortgage rates climbed last week as the bond market sold off ~ 11 Jun 2015 Liquidity isn’t coming back, and thank goodness: James Saft ~ 11 Jun 2015 How the U.S. dollar is putting pressure on bond markets ~ 10 Jun 2015 The $3 trillion bond trade Citigroup says investors should fear ~ 10 Jun 2015 China default: Watch ranks swell with $12 billion debt coming due ~ 10 Jun 2015 Bond investors are getting really creative when it comes to hedging their risk ~ 10 Jun 2015 How the next financial crisis will happen ~ 10 Jun 2015 What the bond rout means for emerging markets ~ 5 Jun 2015 Hair-raising bond rout leads to possible capitulation ~ 4 Jun 2015 The central banks are losing control of the financial markets ~ 4 Jun 2015 The liquidity timebomb - monetary policies have created a dangerous paradox ~ 1 Jun 2015 Five charts that explain why the global bond market is melting down ~ 13 May 2015 Is the age of negative interest rates ending already? ~ 11 Jun 2015 A Long View on bonds ~ 15 May 2015 Howard Marks: Liquidity ~ 25 Mar 2015 Definition of 'M2'M2 is a broader money classification than M1, because it includes assets that are highly liquid but not cash. A consumer or business typically won’t use savings deposits and other non-M1 components of M2 when making purchases or paying bills, but it could convert them to cash in relatively short order. M1 and M2 are closely related, and economists like to include the more broadly defined definition for M2 when discussing the money supply, because modern economies often involve transfers between different account types. For example, a business may transfer $10,000 from a money market account to its checking account. This transfer would increase M1, which doesn’t include money market funds, while keeping M2 stable, since M2 contains money market accounts. The coming crash of all crashes – but in debt ~ 16 May 2015 Martin Armstrong: The Forecaster ~ 15 Jan 2015 Omens of a Derivatives Meltdown (Part 1) ~ 10 Jul 2014 Return of inflation exacerbates the rout in eurozone bond markets ~ 4 Jun 2015
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Post by zuolun on Jun 24, 2015 10:08:47 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Aug 4, 2015 14:10:37 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Aug 11, 2015 6:42:21 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Aug 29, 2015 8:49:00 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Aug 31, 2015 6:12:46 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Sept 19, 2015 9:55:02 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Sept 28, 2015 17:15:38 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Sept 30, 2015 12:02:19 GMT 7
Carl Icahn urges Fed to get off zero rates, says central bank going down ‘treacherous path’ ~ 29 Sep 2015 IMF: An interest rate increase from the FED is a likely catalyst for the crisis in emerging markets ~ 29 Sep 2015 IMF: Market liquidity not in decline, but prone to evaporate ~ 29 Sep 2015 For global corporate bonds, it's another crisis ~ 28 Sep 2015 Junk bond market imminent collapse threatens (unwelcome) big rate rises By Clive Maund 29 Sep 2015 Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market’s role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences. The chart for Junk Bonds looks terrible - and it is already right at the point of breaking down from a big top pattern. This frightening development doesn't seem to have been noticed by many people, but it portends rising yields first on low quality debt that will lead rapidly to a severe credit crunch that will work its way back towards supposedly higher quality bonds and Treasuries, causing a bond market crash and rising rates at the worst possible time when the world economy is in the throes of a deflationary implosion. Let's now look at the long-term 8-year chart for the imperiously named SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF, or in other words "The Junk Bond ETF". On this chart we can see how, after rounding over beneath a big Dome Top, JNK is on the point of breaking down beneath key support at the lower boundary of the top pattern, which can be expected to lead to a plunge. On this chart, the drop of recent days doesn't look at all dramatic, and furthermore we can see that it potentially has much further to fall - it could easily plummet back into the low $20's. On the 3-year chart we can see how JNK is right at the point of breaking down from its top pattern. On this chart it also looks like it is getting very oversold and like it could bounce back. Could it? - anything is possible and the Fed could suddenly defuse the situation temporarily by announcing QE4, but this would only buy time and JNK would later break down from this top pattern anyway. With everything unraveling fast globally, it is very possible that QE4 will quickly become an irrelevant act of desperation anyway, and have very little net effect. When looking at this 3-year chart, remember to refer back to the 8-year chart to remind yourself of the ominous big picture. A bounce here would be just a blip in the larger scheme of things, which portends sharply rising rates as the global economy goes down in flames like the Hindenburg. If JNK does fall as far as this chart is suggesting is possible, interest rates will skyrocket and all hell will break loose involving widespread Sovereign defaults and bursting asset bubbles. The stockmarket losses up to this point will pale into insignificance compared to what could be coming. No-one will be interested in what the Fed says anymore, and they'll be lucky if the press even bother to turn up for their meetings. If this assessment of the outlook for Junk Bonds and debt generally is correct, then the most important thing that investors and ordinary citizens should do is to get out of debt or reduce it as soon as possible. Debt made sense during the “risk on” epoch when interest rates were kept artificially low for years, as you could borrow at very low rates to play various asset bubbles such as property speculation and stocks, but with this “golden age” looking set to come to an abrupt end, it’s time to liquidate and pay debt down before rates start to soar.
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Post by zuolun on Oct 4, 2015 9:42:06 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Oct 14, 2015 11:51:40 GMT 7
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