Post by candy188 on Oct 21, 2013 15:31:45 GMT 7
Cautionary tone by Dr Chan on investment in Malaysian properties.Dr Chan Yan Chong, 7 Oct 2013
曾渊沧专栏 2013 10 07
Herd Mentally is a taboo in investing
Last weekend, I was invited to an investment seminar in Singapore, I took this opportunity to spent my holiday in Malacca. My last trip to Malacca was 20 years ago, there isn't any significant changes in Malacca, besides the surge in tourists from China.
On my 3-hours journey from Singapore west zone to Johor Bahru and proceeded to the highway, only oil palm plantations on either sides of highway were witnessed .人人争住买要小心
Be Caution when Others are dashing to Buy.
Recently, there is increasing interest of Singaporeans to invest in Malaysian properties and I was asked similar topics during the investment seminar. 但是，当我见到由新加坡对岸的柔佛直到马六甲的路上，景观竟然20年不变，可见马来西亚经济发展速度的缓慢。
The slow economic growth of Malaysia is evidenced by no change in the scenery when I traveled on the road leading from Johor causeway to Malacca for a prolonged duration of 20 years.
The astronomical surge in properties in Singapore, coupled with extremely low interest rate have attracted Singaporeans to invest in the neighbouring Malyasian properties that are aggressively marketed by Singapore property developers.
Similar phenomena occurred in Hong Kong 20 years ago where lots of Hongkongers lost money when investing in Shenzhen properties. Fortunately, Shenzhen properties price have leaped after 20 years.
Herd Mentally or Blindly followed the crowd is a taboo in investing
Minority of the investors who are first-movers have the advantage of earning big bucks from the speculative activity and this will attract more investors. 最后一批抢购者就成了音乐椅游戏中抢不到椅子的人
，这是放诸四海皆準的基本投资原则。Unfortunately, the last batch of investors will become the greater fool in the musical chair game.
但是，一群又一群的人往往因為看到有人赚了钱，自己不去赚就对不起自己，也就忘了甚麼是风险。Human Greed is kindled when witnessing more people earning money to the extend that one ignore the importance of RISK Management.
Post by candy188 on Oct 21, 2013 16:14:23 GMT 7
By Dr Chan Yan Chong, 11 October 2013
Last weekend, I was invited to Singapore for an investment seminar that was co-organised with Shares Investment. While I was there, I took the opportunity to go on a side trip to Malacca. It has been 20 years since I last visited Malacca. Malacca has basically not changed over these 20 years, except that there are more tourists than before, and most are from China. From the Tuas Checkpoint at the westernmost tip of Singapore, I crossed the causeway into Johor before hitting the highway. During the nearly three-hour drive, there were no signs of houses on either sides of the highway, only miles after miles of oil palm plantations.
Recently, many Singaporeans have become keen to invest in property in Malaysia. At the last investment seminar, many people asked me questions relating to this development. Seeing how the scenery along the way between Johor and Malacca had remained virtually unchanged for the past 20 years, it goes to show that economic development in Malaysia is just plodding along. In recent years, Singapore property prices have kept rising, while bank interest rates have remained low. This has caused many cash-rich people to cast about anxiously for something to invest in. So, many of Singapore’s property developers went across the straits on a development spree and then came back to market these projects in Singapore, thus attracting throngs of Singaporeans rushing in to invest.
Twenty years ago, many Singaporeans also rushed in to invest in properties on the Indonesian island of Batam, and lost money.
One rule of investment is never to rush in with the crowd.
We should always be wary of investments and equities that everyone is scrambling to buy.
A small portion of these investors may be fleet-footed enough to have sold off during the feeding frenzy, and more people would rush in when they saw that these lucky few had made money.
The tail-end of the crowd would then become the players who could not grab hold of a seat in the game of musical chairs, and this is the basic principle of all investments, wherever you go.
However, droves of people would tend only to register the fact that those lucky few had made money
, so they want to have a share in the pie, only to forget about risk.The outlook for the Singapore and Hong Kong stock market would depend on the direction of the Chinese stock market, which is growing in influence as the day goes by.
he vast majority of new stocks listed in Hong Kong in recent years are H shares from China. Singapore also saw a similar increase in Chinese S-chip stocks. Even if we disregard the H shares or S-chip stocks, local listed companies are increasingly focusing their businesses in China.
As more and more Chinese companies are listed in Singapore, we are faced with shares which vary wildly in quality. Someone asked me how should he avoid those shares that would suddenly plunge or even be suspended from trading? My answer is: it is unavoidable, and you can only blame your luck if it happens to you. The only thing that you can and should do is to avoid placing your bets on second and third tier stocks that you are not familiar with.
Personally, my holdings are primarily blue-chip stocks, and that is a discipline that long-term investors should keep to.
Do not trust in the myth of a hole-in-one;
==> investment diversification is still the most important and fundamental rule of the game.
Post by candy188 on Nov 1, 2013 22:52:17 GMT 7
Dr YC Chan - October 2013 newsletter dated 1 Nov 2013:
After US Fed’s meeting on 30 October, matters relating to bond purchases and extremely low interest rate remained status quo. US Stocks however, dipped after hitting new high. The reaction is not unusual after short selling on good news.
Before the good news was announced, the stock markets went up, which means the concluded result was expected by the markets.
Since the Fed’s market withdrawal forenounced in May this year, US stocks have dropped 3 times, conspicuously to rock bottom:
1st time in mid June;
2nd time end of August;
3rd time early October.
The withdrawal does not happen this time round, but it will definitely happen in time to come.
Thus I believe US stocks will repeatedly go up and down under the shadow of market withdrawal influence.
For the short term, US stocks will move independently depending on the performance of individual listed companies. The local market should have its focus on the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party and the the People’s Bank’s money supplies. US Fed will have another meeting in December. It should be the last meeting attended by the incumbent Chairman Bernanke who initiated the Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy (QE) of the US.
Morally Bernanke should not simply leave as it is.
==> Thus I am somewhat concern the December meeting might unexpectedly Start to Withdraw from the markets prior to Bernanke’s
departure, and to let him handle the post withdrawal issues.
12 月，美国联储局将再开一次会，这应该是现任主席伯南克最后一次参加的会议。美国的量化宽松是他发明的，他在道义是实在不应该拍拍屁股离开，因此，我是有些担心 12 月的会议会出人意料地开始退市，让伯南克在任满之前做出退市的行动并处理退市后所发生的问题。
In December US Republican Party and the Democratic Party will negotiate once again on US national debt ceiling issue. The October 17 agreement was to push back the issue for 3 months; Republicans will keep using the debt ceiling issue to force Obama to cut governmental
In September this year, US financial expenditures were surprisingly in black with some surpluses. I believe this could be the result of the Republicans’ past successful automatic deficit reduction budget plan. In fact, if Obama would follow Clinton not spending frivolously, US tax revenue would exceed expenditure with no deficit, and the debt ceiling issue would not have happened. A while ago, the share price of Sky One Holdings plummeted.
Since large numbers of dragon stocks and those Singapore companies with investments in China public listed in Singapore,
problems often surface due to
~~ relatively poorer corporate governance in China.
~~~ On the other hand,
there could be some people, reporters in particular, having received money from a 3rd party, purposefully spread unfavourable faked news of a company to let its share price drop
, so that the 3rd party who pay the money make profit from short selling prior to the faked news. Lately the Chinese Public Security Authorities arrest a Guangzhou New Express （广州新快报）reporter suspected of spreading unfavourable faked news of Hong Kong listed Zoomlion (中联重科). How do we tackle this kind of problems?
The only way is to diversify your investments.
Be wary of those manipulated dragon stocks. Do not over panic, search into the sources of the news to see if it is from some ones with motives spreading rumours.
NOL has turned around in 3rd quarter. The worst scenario of freight forwarders should be over.
海皇轮船第三季总算扭亏为盈，航运业最坏的情况应该已经过去。P/S: Dragon Stock (龙筹股) refers to Singapore listed China stock with main operation or business in China.
Examples - Yangzijiang Shipping, Cosco Corp and Yanlord Land
Post by candy188 on Nov 30, 2013 8:06:20 GMT 7
Though I have been surviving in the stock market since 1997, my stock performance has been mediocre. The emergence of a mentor has enlightened me on virtue of value investing, I am still learning to control my emotion in investing though. Perhaps the teachers (my friend & experts in Pertama forum) appear because the student is ready.
Dr YC Chan - 13 February 2013 newsletter:Many people do NOT Make money in a big bull market because
====》 they want to SPECULATE on Every Market Adjustment, HOPING to Sell their holdings before adjustment and Buy Back at a lower price after adjustment.
Unfortunately most of the times, they are Unable to Buy Back what they have sold, or have to buy back at a Higher price and Make Less Money.
可惜往往捕捉不到调整前的高位及调整后的低位， 股票卖掉了买不会来， 或者以更高的价位买回， 少赚了很多钱。
Before selling your holdings in a Bull Market, please recall how many times in a bull market
因此， 在牛市中你想沽出股票前， 不妨回忆一下， 你在过去的牛市中，
==》 you were able to Buy Back at Lower Price for what you had sold?
===》 How Good you are at Catching the Right Timing of Market Adjustments?
If it is only 50-50, then you are virtually gambling on big-small dice.
如果你在过去捕捉调整浪不超过50%, 那么， 每一次的沽货行为实际上都在赌大小， 何必呢？I dare not, and am not able to predict which sector of stocks would outperform the market.
Post by candy188 on Dec 30, 2013 13:39:27 GMT 7
With 2013 ending, What is the Outlook for 2014?
曾渊沧博士 Dr YC Chan - 20 December 2013 Newsletter:
With US continuously setting Record Highs, lots of people are worried that the stock market has reached the peak with bubble formed.I think the stock market is NOT likely to burst yet. Now is Only the EARLY Stage of Bubble.
Everyone needs to Remember
- NOT to be OVERLY GREEDY,
- DON’T INVEST too Much Fund into those Speculative Penny Stocks with No Underlying Business Fundamentals.