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Post by stockpicker on Jan 25, 2014 14:48:35 GMT 7
Everyone knows that STI is heading down now that US markets did badly yesterday but to what level? This chart will show that STI is presently in a complex situation; first, the index made a false breakup from the 3-year trendline and now heading now; second, the index is trapped in a symmetrical triangle; 3rd, the Bollinger band is expanding indicating it would want to go down; 4th, the stochastic chart showing a failure to cheong straight from oversold(low) to overbought(high) which indicates more downside to come. Because of the triangle trap, it is likely STI will want to test 3050 or thereabout close to the next support line. It is therefore advisable for one not put too much hope for a rebounce soon until STI has tested and broken the symmetrical triangle.  |
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Post by zuolun on Jan 25, 2014 15:18:11 GMT 7
 Bye, Bye, Bye Everyone knows that STI is heading down now that US markets did badly yesterday but to what level? This chart will show that STI is presently in a complex situation; first, the index made a false breakup from the 3-year trendline and now heading now; second, the index is trapped in a symmetrical triangle; 3rd, the Bollinger band is expanding indicating it would want to go down; 4th, the stochastic chart showing a failure to cheong straight from oversold(low) to overbought(high) which indicates more downside to come. Because of the triangle trap, it is likely STI will want to test 3050 or thereabout close to the next support line. It is therefore advisable for one not put too much hope for a rebounce soon until STI has tested and broken the symmetrical triangle. |
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Post by zuolun on Jan 26, 2014 15:23:22 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Jan 31, 2014 22:04:28 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Feb 4, 2014 17:47:50 GMT 7
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Post by stockpicker on Feb 4, 2014 19:52:31 GMT 7
STI has broken down the symmetrical triangle and is now finding support @ 2954.. which is the high of a candlestick that has the last high volume. It may want to test 2931 and if that failed, 2698. In the mid term, if STI recovers, it may want to test the red trendline, which is also the lower bounce of the symmetrical triangle.  |
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Post by zuolun on Feb 11, 2014 12:06:39 GMT 7
STI — How to trade the Dead Cat BounceThe market is so volatile, need to buckle the seat belt to endure the roller coaster ride.  Kevin Scully (NRA Capital), Thursday, 06 February 2014 : What should you do?
I think investors should not panic and wait for markets to stabilise. Watch the VIX index if it breaches 30, it's not a good sign and may trigger further weakness.For Singapore, I see the first line of major support not at 3000 but at 2900
===> but 2600 is a good level to start to seriously accumulate.
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Post by zuolun on Feb 11, 2014 16:51:52 GMT 7
Three Shares that Lost to the Market Today — 11 Feb 2014 Straits Times Index may not be fair gauge of local economic conditionsBy Narayana Narayana 7 Feb 2014 The report “STI limps into Year of the Horse” (Feb 4) carried an analyst’s opinion that “the fall in the STI (Straits Times Index) may just be the opportunity for investors to buy good Singapore companies cheaply”. The latter part of the statement is correct, at least comparatively. It is arguable, though, how far the fluctuations in the STI reflect local conditions accurately and project a wholly local perspective, as stock markets are supposed to in theory. Often, daily reviews of the Singapore bourse tend to carry a rider such as “STI went up/down led by (select) Hong Kong stocks”. Hong Kong stocks’ influence is shown in the fact that as many as four of them are in the STI’s 30 components and are traded in a foreign currency (US$) to boot. Currency fluctuation surely and additionally distorts any simplistic projection. One of the stocks has traded consistently below its issue price and not only marginally. Yet another is Thai-based. Another factor that militates against the STI being a fair, much less accurate, gauge of economic conditions is that it is an exchange-traded fund, which lends itself to manipulation by interested and, one could say, influential parties. Overall, the STI is only another listed counter on the trading board and, in fact, is nebulous in character with no base of its own. Investing in its component stocks may not necessarily be as reliable a yardstick as recommended. STI limps into Year of the HorseAnalysts expect further declines in the weeks aheadBy Lee Yen Nee
4 Feb 2014
SINGAPORE — The local stock market began the Year of the Horse on a limp note, falling to a more-than-one-year low yesterday, with analysts expecting further declines in the weeks ahead.
Hurt by the continued tapering of United States stimulus and weakness in the Chinese economy, the Straits Times Index (STI), which has been weak since December, dipped below the psychological 3,000-mark for the first time since Nov 23, 2012.
The benchmark closed down 1.2 per cent at 2,990.95, with all but four component stocks in negative territory. In the broad market, about 1.5 billion shares worth S$948 million changed hands, with losers outnumbering gainers 274 to 138.
“Looking at the fall in the Singapore market in the last two months, you will notice that some of the major index stocks have very high volume, and that signals that the global funds are shifting money out of Singapore,” said Mr Kevin Scully, Executive Chairman of NetResearch Asia.
The US Federal Reserve last Wednesday announced a further US$10 billion (S$12.8 billion) reduction in its monthly bond-buying programme to US$65 billion in the final policy meeting headed by Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has since handed over the reins of the central bank to Ms Janet Yellen. The decision was made while emerging markets were already experiencing massive sell-offs.
Said Mr Scully: “Because of the tapering, a lot of the money that went out of US assets because of the weak dollar is now going back to the US. That’s why we are seeing a general weakness in stocks in emerging markets.”
Key regional markets, such as those in China and Hong Kong, remained closed yesterday for the Chinese New Year holiday. Among those that were open, Japan’s Nikkei-225 Index closed 2 per cent down, while South Korea’s KOSPI ended 1.1 per cent lower.
Further feeding into the bearish sentiment were concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy after lacklustre growth in the country’s services sector. The official services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a five-year low of 53.4 last month, down from December’s 54.6 reading, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said yesterday.
The services PMI came after official data on Saturday showed China’s manufacturing activity falling to a six-month low last month as output and orders slowed amid government efforts to rein in excessive credit. The manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 from December’s reading of 51.
“Right now, we’re looking at a rise in global uncertainty as the slowdowns in many countries are happening together. China is coming off faster than expected: We have expected China to be weak, but not to the (point where) both services and manufacturing PMIs have slowed,” said CMC Markets analyst Desmond Chua.
“Looking at how global indices are reacting to the China slowdown and the emerging market rout, I do think we will definitely be hitting 2,900, and any break of that could bring the STI down all the way to 2,700, because that was where we last saw support being held for quite some time,” he said.
Amid the gloom, analysts said the projected growth in the eurozone and US could benefit Singapore’s export economy and help moderate the weakness in the stock market this year, but data has been patchy.
“The unemployment rate in Europe is expected to fall and its growth rate is forecast to be much faster, but data has been rather uneven and that remains to be seen,” said Mr Chua. “In the US, the focus will be on the job report this Friday. It wasn’t strong in December and if data continues to disappoint, we might be in for more weakness.”
However, a dip in the stock market is not all bad news as investors hunting for value now have an opportunity to buy them at lower prices, said Mr Roger Tan, Chief Executive of Voyage Research. “The fall in the STI may just be the opportunity for investors to buy good Singapore companies cheap. It now depends on whether anyone will follow the maxim of ‘buy when others are fearful’,” he said.
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Post by zuolun on Feb 12, 2014 10:34:42 GMT 7
The STI should have been much higher when measured in U.S. dollarThe U.S. dollar is safer right now and will continue to strengthen. When your costs decline on a dollar basis, and your revenues increase on a dollar basis, your profits will be higher. The reverse is true when your costs increase on a dollar basis, and your revenues decrease on a dollar basis, your profits will be lower. USD Vs SGD — The S$/US$ has appreciated by 19.55% (S$1.2469 currently Vs S$1.55, the peak in 2009). 5-year Chart: 1 Jan 2009 to 24 Nov 2013
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Post by zuolun on Feb 14, 2014 15:02:06 GMT 7
The S'pore stock market is now "A mahjong game within the family!" ==> 关起门来一家亲！  Without participation from the foreign BBs, active players are local FMs + plenty of "bayi" (brokerage firms' house/proprietary traders) + retail players. |
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Post by stockpicker on Feb 22, 2014 19:57:59 GMT 7
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Post by odie on Mar 9, 2014 5:42:28 GMT 7
The STI should have been much higher when measured in U.S. dollarThe U.S. dollar is safer right now and will continue to strengthen. When your costs decline on a dollar basis, and your revenues increase on a dollar basis, your profits will be higher. The reverse is true when your costs increase on a dollar basis, and your revenues decrease on a dollar basis, your profits will be lower. zuolun bro, i am looking to get 1 lot of super group cos of bonus issue LOL |
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Post by zuolun on Mar 24, 2014 12:36:50 GMT 7
STI up 34.75 points at 3,108.14 with low volume done on 24 Mar 2014 at 1.31pm.   |
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Post by me200 on Mar 27, 2014 17:00:49 GMT 7
Just observation ...
The STI market close at 3162.50 today but the STI ETF close much higher at $3.24.
This is a wide spread and the $3.24 was done at pre-close with 281 lots.
Is the BB buying ahead as they anticipate STI moving to 3250 range?
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Post by oldman on Mar 27, 2014 18:47:25 GMT 7
It has been a long long time since I played ETFs. But I do recall that sometimes they include dividends. As always, I stand corrected.
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