During a market downturn, it is important to be able to distinguish between a falling knife and a possible multi-bagger stock. Given the fall in oil and commodity prices, I am inclined to classify all related stocks as potential falling knives. As I am equally as bearish on Singapore properties, I too will stay away from such stocks.
But there are stocks that have been beaten badly and are not in any of these related industries. At the end of the day, the stock market is about supply and demand and if lots more investors want to sell, it is likely that the prices will drift southwards. Investors may have to sell these non related stocks to cover for their losses in the related sectors. There may also be forced selling for those who have bought shares with margin and are currently under margin calls.
To bottom fish, one has to read the supply and demand of the stock correctly. I will certainly not be buying any stocks where a major shareholder is liquidating his positions. Yes, it is not easy to read market volume but I feel that all investors (fundamental investors included) must learn this art of deciphering market volume and then making a decision whether the selling volume is temporary or more permanent.
Even more important than that, investors must believe in their own analysis and be willing to risk part of their wealth in what they believe in. To me, there is no point just taking a small position in any stock as this will not increase your net worth. It will be more like an ego trip. I invest to increase my net worth and not just to feel good. To be successful as an investor, you must learn to overcome this fear of putting sufficient meat into your investments... otherwise, your game of investing will always remain, just a game.
Most of the smaller oil & gas and related company share prices had already collapsed beyond recognition due to oil price decline; chartwise, I totally agree with oldman that "Given the fall in oil and commodity prices, I am inclined to classify all related stocks as potential falling knives."
"Given the fall in oil and commodity prices, I am inclined to classify all related stocks as potential falling knives."
Hmmm, ... i wonder.
During the 2008/09 crisis, oil price was falling off the cliff too. As would be expected during those periods of "falling knives", analysts were keen to join the herd and forecasting lower and lower prices of oil. As oil price were dipping towards $50/bbl, then $40/bbl, analysts and soothsayers were trying their utmost to outdo one another by being the more bearish. CNOOC, 883 HK, understandably crashed thru the roof, hurdling towards sub-HK$5 during the trough.
Yet, if one had dilligently accumulated during those times, one would have done very well. Not too long ago when oil price was still at about $100/bbl, CNOOC was trading well above $20. And yes, you guessed it, the same herd of analysts were calling for big buys with target prices gunning towards $25-30/sh! With oil price having seen a sharp correction in the past two months, CNOOC is now barely holding at $10.
I am no expert on oil price. Of course, the dynamics of the oil industry also appear to have changed with the advent and success of the shale evolution in recent times.
Still, there must be an intrinsic value for oil. The question is finding out what that breakeven cost is, whether between the different exploration companies or between the traditional oil and shale.
my point is, classifying all oil-related stocks as falling knives seem rather harsh. Just as spot oil could go up, come down, ... who could say it would not go up again? OPEC could decide to cut supply drastically, demand could pick up, a large number of the shale operators could be out of business. While it would be a tad optimistic to believe oil price could return to $100/bbl anytime soon, surely a price of $70/bbl isn't as out of reach as we think? Recall that when oil was $70/bbl, many of the oil majors would still be very profitable.
Hi zuolun, I like the article published by Motley Fool which you posted. Where there is a crisis, there is opportunity. Some time down the road, says when oil price drops to $20 to $30 a barrel, it will be time to pick up oil and gas stocks with cash and positive cash flow.
Why is no one paying attention to Singapore oil stocks anymore? ~ 12 Mar 2015
Focus on the downside, the upside will take care of itself