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GLP
Feb 5, 2015 23:06:54 GMT 7
Post by sptl123 on Feb 5, 2015 23:06:54 GMT 7
Thank you very much Bro Zuolun. Yes I fully aware. I am not young already. Too much of risk taking would bring me nearer to the tomb . I don't really need the leverage and I promised myself not to exposed higher than 3X.
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GLP
Feb 6, 2015 7:52:09 GMT 7
Post by chlio on Feb 6, 2015 7:52:09 GMT 7
I always have the impression the use of CFDs in local context is for going short. For going long, I rather "take possession" (still true if scripless?) via stock broking firm. I think it aligns to what Dr. Leong prescribes in his book.
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Post by oldman on Feb 6, 2015 9:29:26 GMT 7
When I was younger and did not have much capital, I did use margin accounts for long positions. If one uses CFDs for long positions, it is likely that the daily financing charges will be much higher. Hence, makes more sense to use the broker margin accounts than CFDs for long positions. Nowadays though, I don't use margin accounts or CFDs. Borrowing money to bet on the market is very risky as one is exposed not only to the ups and downs of the market but also to daily financing charges which can mount up very quickly. If you use your own money to invest in the market, you can hold on to the stock as long as you wish without incurring daily financing charges. Then, it is only a matter of choosing the right stock rather than choosing the right stock and timing it correctly. I always have the impression the use of CFDs in local context is for going short. For going long, I rather "take possession" (still true if scripless?) via stock broking firm. I think it aligns to what Dr. Leong prescribes in his book.
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GLP
Feb 6, 2015 10:10:26 GMT 7
Post by sptl123 on Feb 6, 2015 10:10:26 GMT 7
I open an CFD account is purely for taking short positions. It is the only plateform I knew which could provide that. Having long for 33 years, I am trying short in 2015 . As getting older, I am limiting myself and be less speculative. " For stock prices, they are relatively slower to go up and faster to come down" . "With FA/ TA and all other things being equal; shorting is not worse off than longing....."
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Post by zuolun on May 27, 2015 12:12:25 GMT 7
GLP proposed dividend of S$0.055 per share, up 22% ~ 14 May 2015 GLP ~ Ascending Broadening WedgeGLP had an inverted hammer and traded @ S$2.77 (-0.06, -2.1%) with 9.41m shares done on 27 May 2015 at 1.15pm. Immediate support @ S$2.76, immediate resistance @ S$2.83. New SSH, Hillhouse Capital Mgmt in GLP at 7.27% or 351,643,400 shares @ S$2.74 per share on 21 May 2015 26 May 2015 GLP: Second largest shareholder UK-based hedge fund Lone Pine Capital (LPC), has bowed out of its entire 7.27% stake in GLP on 21 May, disposing to Chinese investment fund Hillhouse Capital Management for $963.5m. The married deal of 351.6m shares was crossed at market price of $2.74/share against its three-month volume weighted average price of $2.64/share. According to its website, Hillhouse is founded by Zhang Lei and is a long-term investor which manages capital for institutional clients such as university endowments, foundations, sovereign wealth funds, pensions and family offices. Coincidentally in 2012, Hillhouse was likened to LPC by Financial Times, owing to its low profile but high returns. GLP has been well sought after by Chinese investors in the past few months. In Feb '14, it entered into a landmark US$2.5b investment agreement with a Chinese consortium, including Bank of China, China Life and HOPU Funds, which now owns 33.8% of GLP China. Following the deal, GLP struck several collaborative tie-ups with Chinese partners:- Apr '14: A convenient financing deal with Bank of China - Aug '14: JV with China's largest state-owned logistics firm China Materials Storage and Transportation Development Co to be its exclusive developer - Oct '14: Strategic partnership agreement with China Development Bank Capital to develop logistics infrastructure These alliances have given GLP a unique advantage over its competitors, by providing access to development land banks and financial resources in China that would otherwise not be easily available to foreign companies. Of the 3.3m sf of development starts in FY15, 21% or 700,000 sqm was facilitated by its consortium investors. With an estimated US$2.5t to be invested in the industry over the next 15 years, China’s logistics demand per capita is expected to catch up to within one-third that of the US. Market Insight remains sanguine on the counter, which sits in the Growth portfolio. Bloomberg consensus has 18 Buy and 2 Hold ratings on the logistics player, with average 12-month TP of $3.17.
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GLP
Jun 10, 2015 9:13:33 GMT 7
pain likes this
Post by zuolun on Jun 10, 2015 9:13:33 GMT 7
GLP proposed dividend of S$0.055 per share, up 22% ~ 14 May 2015 Alternative view:GLP ~ Bearish Gartley Bat formationGLP had a dragonfly doji and traded unchanged @ S$2.69 with 1.35m shares done on 10 Jun at 1000 hrs. Immediate support @ S$2.68, immediate resistance @ S$2.71.
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GLP
Jun 16, 2015 14:15:58 GMT 7
Post by zuolun on Jun 16, 2015 14:15:58 GMT 7
The mighty 200d SMAWhy the 200d SMA is important:The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is the average price of an asset over a certain period of time. It is calculated by adding up the closing prices over a certain number of time periods, and then dividing by that number of time periods. SMA’s are used to measure momentum. The most watched SMA is the 200 day, it is widely recognized as the dividing line between bull and bear territory. The primary trend is considered to be up as long as the market is trading above its 200-day moving average but this trend turns bearish whenever the market closes below this average. GLP ~ Bearish Gartley Bat Breakout, interim TP S$2.51, next TP S$2.39GLP had a doji and traded unchanged @ S$2.61 with 9.51m shares done on 16 Jun at 0305 hrs. Immediate support @ S$2.57, immediate resistance @ S$2.64.
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Post by zuolun on Jul 31, 2015 14:40:06 GMT 7
梁祝 "Butterfly Lovers" : 恨綿綿 ( Hate the rain)GLP to acquire US$4.6 billion logistics portfolio ~ 29 July 2015 GLP ~ Bearish Gartley Bat Pattern X2, interim TP S$2.22GLP had a long black marubozu and traded @ S$2.32 (-0.18, -7.2%) with extremely high volume done at 72.7m shares on 31 July 2015 at 0315 hrs. Immediate support @ S$2.29, immediate resistance @ S$2.39. GLP (weekly) ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim TP S$2.22GLP: Moderating Chinese development targets, OCBC maintained 'BUY' TP S$3.07OCBC Research 31 July 2015 - 1QFY16 results in line
- Lower FY16 Chinese devt targets
- To acquire US$4.55b US portfolio
1QFY16 numbers in line but Chinese development targets moderated1QFY16 PATMI increased 49.4% YoY to US$268.1m mostly due to development and FV gains at JVs and investment assets in China and Japan (cap rates compressed by 25bps and 11 bps, respectively). Overall, we judge this set of results to be within expectations, and estimated core PATMI now constitutes 28.7% of our full year forecast. In China, 690k sqm of new leases were signed – up 29% YoY – and rent growth on renewal increased 7.3% YoY. That said, the lease ratio decreased 3% QoQ to 88% (group expects ~90% in FY16). We highlight that GLP also moderated its Chinese FY16 development targets (starts from US$2.2b to US$1.6b; completions from US$1.4b to US$1.1b). Operation traction in Japan and Brazil appear firm (60k sqm and 82k sqm of new leases in Japan and Brazil, respectively, with rent growth on renewals in the mid-single digits.) To acquire US$4.55b logistics portfolio in the USGLP also recently announced that it would acquire a US$4.55b US logistics portfolio from Industrial Income Trust. The portfolio was 93% leased as at end Jun15 with a weighted average lease expiry of 5.5 years, and will enlarge GLP’s US footprint by 50% to 173m sq ft to become the 2nd largest logistics property operator in the US. The group would initially own 100% of the portfolio upon closing in Nov15 and subsequently pare down its stake to 10% by Apr16. We understand that syndication demand from major institutional investors is expected to be strong. The portfolio will be acquired at a cap rate of 5.6%, and the group’s initial equity commitment of US$1.9b will be funded by cash on hand and existing credit facilities. Management has indicated that they expect to generate compelling returns, including share of operating results and fund management fees, on its target 10% equity stake of US$190m within the first year of investment. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$3.07. *************************************************************************************************************************** GLP – Current price is attractive, MER rated ‘Outperform’ TP $3.13Macquarie Research 30 July 2015 GLP has been on a downtrend after it hit a high of $3.14 in 2013, since then the shares have been making lower highs and lower lows falling to $2.48 yesterday. The logistics company announced that it agreed to buy more than 200 warehouses from Industrial Income Trust (IIT) for $4.55bil. After the acquisition, the company will be the second-largest owner of US industrial estate after Prologis Inc. According the Chief Executive Officer Ming Wei, the deal will increase GLP’s revenue from fund-management fees by about 50%. Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research note yesterday, 29th July 2015, reiterating an ‘Outperform’ rating with a 12-month price target of $3.13. Read on for more excerpts…. EventBefore the market opened yesterday, GLP announced the acquisition of a US$4.55bn US logistics portfolio from Industrial Income Trust (“IIT”). The deal is expected to close in November. Reiterate Outperform. ImpactTransaction details. Including transaction costs, the entire deal size stands at US$4.8bn (~60% debt funded). GLP expects to initially own 100% of the portfolio and pare down its stake to 10% by April 2016. Post transaction, U.S. would represent 6% of GLP’s Net Asset Value. The initial equity commitment of US$1.9bn will be funded by cash and existing credit facilities. Fair deal at 5.6% cap rate. Transaction cap rate is fair at 5.6% (US$842 psm). The warehouse industry is tight in the U.S., as nationwide demand has outpaced completions over the last 4 years (according to CBRE). MER also notes that back in April, Prologis U.S. Logistic Venture (partnership with Norges) bought KTR industrial assets at ~US$900 psm. MER likes the deal given that post-transaction, GLP will become the second-largest logistics property owner and operator in US (behind Prologis) and extend its weighted average lease expiry (WALE) in U.S. from 3 to 3.8 years. MER also notes that 97% of IIT’s assets are located in submarkets where GLP is currently operating, implying some cost savings. MER’s action and recommendationReiterate Outperform. GLP trades at 1.1 price per book (P/B) with an improving return on equity (ROE) profile. MER thinks current entry price is attractive.
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GLP
Aug 2, 2015 0:32:41 GMT 7
Post by sptl123 on Aug 2, 2015 0:32:41 GMT 7
GLP ~ Bearish Gartley Bat Pattern X2, interim TP S$2.22GLP had a long black marubozu and traded @ S$2.32 (-0.18, -7.2%) with extremely high volume done at 72.7m shares on 31 July 2015 at 0315 hrs. Immediate support @ S$2.29, immediate resistance @ S$2.39. GLP (weekly) ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim TP S$2.22 Bro Zuolun, Please comment on my alternative view of GLP: The Bullish Three Drives Pattern.
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Post by zuolun on Aug 3, 2015 14:31:45 GMT 7
Bro Zuolun, Please comment on my alternative view of GLP: The Bullish Three Drives Pattern. sptl123, No, it's not a Bullish Three Drives pattern. GLP's weekly chart showed that it's trading in a Linear Regression Channel. The stock is extremely oversold now; standby, wait patiently for a decisive signal + confirmation to play the dead cat bounce (wave-4), prior to the continual downside movement. Your fingers must be super fast in order to compete and win the algo trading program. Alternative view:GLP ~ Major bearish trend reversal with 5-wave down, interim TP S$1.81, next TP S$1.68GLP gapped down with a long black marubozu and traded @ S$2.17 (-0.13, -5.7%) with high volume done at 59.5m shares on 3 Aug 2015 at 0310 hrs. Immediate support @ S$2.12, immediate resistance @ S$2.27. GLP (weekly) ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim TP S$1.81, next TP S$1.68
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GLP
Aug 7, 2015 7:48:55 GMT 7
Post by sptl123 on Aug 7, 2015 7:48:55 GMT 7
A recent GLP post event: Bearish 5-0 Pattern
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Post by zuolun on Aug 7, 2015 14:31:01 GMT 7
When the share price has wild swing, in most instances, it is the result/action of the BBs. These are the ones (catalysts) with the financial muscles to control and move the stock prices (up/down). Likewise, SMM has a huge descending triangle formation but it has extremely strong support at the neckline @ S$4.05 because of strong support from longterm fund managers. SMM's crucial support @ S$4.05 will break only when more and more longterm fund managers "throw in the towel". pertama.freeforums.net/post/1687odie, One of the best-performed Funds is doing portfolio adjustment on SMM as it is the worst stock stuck in the Fund for 18 months. Don't touch this stock now until the selling is done. pertama.freeforums.net/post/1687During a market downturn, it is important to be able to distinguish between a falling knife and a possible multi-bagger stock. Given the fall in oil and commodity prices, I am inclined to classify all related stocks as potential falling knives. As I am equally as bearish on Singapore properties, I too will stay away from such stocks. But there are stocks that have been beaten badly and are not in any of these related industries. At the end of the day, the stock market is about supply and demand and if lots more investors want to sell, it is likely that the prices will drift southwards. Investors may have to sell these non related stocks to cover for their losses in the related sectors. There may also be forced selling for those who have bought shares with margin and are currently under margin calls. To bottom fish, one has to read the supply and demand of the stock correctly. I will certainly not be buying any stocks where a major shareholder is liquidating his positions. Yes, it is not easy to read market volume but I feel that all investors (fundamental investors included) must learn this art of deciphering market volume and then making a decision whether the selling volume is temporary or more permanent. Even more important than that, investors must believe in their own analysis and be willing to risk part of their wealth in what they believe in. To me, there is no point just taking a small position in any stock as this will not increase your net worth. It will be more like an ego trip. I invest to increase my net worth and not just to feel good. To be successful as an investor, you must learn to overcome this fear of putting sufficient meat into your investments... otherwise, your game of investing will always remain, just a game. The latest percentage of shares owned by any major longterm Funds/SSHs updated on the SGX's company disclosure is more important than the average purchase price bought by these Funds (over a long period of time / more than 10 - 15 years). One good example is SembCorp Marine. The stock has peaked @ S$5.40 in 2011 (last leg or the impulsive Wave-5 of the Elliott Wave pattern; dividend unadjusted) and the longterm downtrend chart indicates that persistent strong selling pressure has been in place since 2011 till to-date and it's not done yet (riding on the corrective ABC-Wave of the Elliott Wave pattern). SembMar's strong selling pressure won't disappear overnite because when longterm Funds buy; they'll buy, buy-on-dip and hold-long-long. However, when they sell; they'll sell and short-sell-long-long, thus the continual downtrend of SembMar will resume after every dead cat bounce. Supply > Demand = Decrease in price. "At the end of the day, the stock market is about supply and demand and if lots more investors want to sell, it is likely that the prices will drift southwards. Investors may have to sell these non related stocks to cover for their losses in the related sectors. There may also be forced selling for those who have bought shares with margin and are currently under margin calls. " ~ oldmanSSE peaked at 5,166 on 12 Jun 2015 and crashed to a low of 3,507 on 8 July 2015New major Chinese SSH in GLP with 7.27% stake ~ 21 May 2015 BlackRock got burned badly in Hanergy ~ 20 May 2015 BlackRock, a major SSH in GLP with 5% stake. ~ 1 Aug 2014 GLP was listed on the SGX Mainboard dated 18 Oct 2010 ~ 25 Sep 2012 GLP ~ Major bearish trend reversal with 5-wave down, interim TP S$1.81, next TP S$1.68GLP gapped down with a long black marubozu and traded @ S$2.17 (-0.13, -5.7%) with high volume done at 59.5m shares on 3 Aug 2015 at 0310 hrs. Immediate support @ S$2.12, immediate resistance @ S$2.27. GLP (weekly) ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim TP S$1.81, next TP S$1.68
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GLP
Aug 25, 2015 11:21:17 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Aug 25, 2015 11:21:17 GMT 7
Don't touch SGX-listed stocks which are directly or indirectly China-related, now. GLP to sell five properties to GLP J-REIT for $306m ~ 10 Aug 2015 GLP ~ Major bearish trend reversal with 5-wave down, interim TP S$1.81, next TP S$1.68GLP closed with a long black marubozu @ S$2.05 (-0.10, -4.7%) with high volume done at 43.1m shares on 24 Aug 2015. Immediate support @ S$2.00, immediate resistance @ S$2.15.
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GLP
Nov 2, 2015 12:24:06 GMT 7
oldman likes this
Post by zuolun on Nov 2, 2015 12:24:06 GMT 7
GLP ~ Bearish Gartley formationGLP had a long-legged doji unchanged @ S$2.24 with 8.3m shares done on 2 Nov 2015 at 1315 hrs. Immediate support @ S$2.17, immediate resistance @ S$2.27.
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GLP
Jan 24, 2016 15:00:58 GMT 7
Post by zuolun on Jan 24, 2016 15:00:58 GMT 7
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