Ezion

Bro Zuolun,

EZION close with a Bullish Marubozu at $ 1.03 (+0.04, +4.04%) with 10.154 milliom share traded.

I study the Harmonic Pattern on 1.27 and 0.786 Projection and try to breakdown the Gartley Pattern by parts and amaszing it works 100% for EZION. ( Would have hoot big big if knew earlier )

Historical Events of Ezion:


 More importantly, what is next ?
Observation on the following chart:
(I) Bullish 0.786 Bullish Projection: Bullish 0.786 Retracement. Price will bounce if this 0.786 critical support holds.
" When a stock is selling off after a rally, the 0.786 retracement often acts as important support. If a stock declines past the 0.786 retracement, it
will usually retest the original starting point (pt. X) of that prior rally."  Source :http://www.harmonictrader.com/

(II) Potential Bullish AB=CD pattern if the support at 0.786 hold.

Price now at potential reversal zone and need a few more candlestick to confirm the up trend reversal.


Bro Zuolun, If the above technically correct?

sptl123,

I'm thankful to oldman and really appreciate him for providing a wonderful forum (FOC) for us to discuss and exchange views/trading ideas on stocks based on TA. 

Dare, don’t be afraid to make mistakes, you’ll learn from them. Persistence is the Key to success.

Keep on honing your skill, keep on learning and growing; the journey is tough but you're not alone.



An analysis on stock analysts' price targets on Ezion from 15 Jan to 22 May 2015:

• Almost all the in-house stock analysts rated 'BUY' none rated 'SELL' except KGI Fraser, the only odd one who rated 'HOLD' TP S$1.12 on 31 Mar 2015 then. 
• On 10 Jun 2015, Ezion closed @ S$1.03, stock analysts' price targets on Ezion are unanimously wrong to date.

“The crowd always loses because the crowd is always wrong. It is wrong because it behaves normally.” ~ Fred C. Kelly

Alternative view:

Ezion ~ Descending triangle, critical support @ S$0.93

Ezion had a spinning top and traded @ S$1.045 (-0.02, -1.9%) with 6.7m shares done on 25 Jun 2015 at 1110 hrs.

Immediate support @ S$1.02, immediate resistance @ S$1.075.

Ezion: DBS Group Research reiterated BUY, TP S$1.50 ~ 22 Jun 2015

DBS Group Research has reiterated its "buy" call on Ezion Holdings as it believes the company's stock price would soon recover to the $1.20 level. In a research note released on June 22, DBS observes that Ezion is well-positioned to benefit from the rising popularity of liftboats in this region, capitalising on its first mover-advantage. "We believe service rigs are in an early growth phase, buoyed by the substitution effect to replace typical work boats/barges in this region," says DBS.

Ezion ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP S$0.445, next TP S$0.31

Ezion closed with a black marubozu @ S$0.565 (-0.01, -1.7%) with 4.75m shares done on 11 Dec 2015.

Immediate support @ S$0.535, immediate resistance @ S$0.60.



Ezion (weekly) ~ Mushroom-Of-Death, interim TP S$0.445, next TP S$0.31



Groupthink: “The crowd always loses because the crowd is always wrong. It is wrong because it behaves normally.” ~ Fred C. Kelly

Don't trust people so readily ~ Almost all in-house stock analysts rated 'BUY' on Ezion in 2015, except KGI Fraser

Ezion: Profit Guidance for 4Q2015 and FY2015 ~ 22 Feb 2016

Ezion forges another offshore wind joint venture in China ~ 22 Feb 2016

Ezion ~ Trading in a rectangle, interim TP S$0.445, next TP S$0.31

Ezion had a black marubozu and traded @ S$0.50 (-0.02, -3.8%) with 12.9m shares done on 23 Feb 2016 at 1310 hrs.

Immediate support @ S$0.48, immediate resistance @ S$0.535.



Ezion's profit guidance indicates that almost all the in-house stock analysts' bullish 'BUY' call on Ezion in 2015 had been disastrous except KGI Fraser and fund manager, Andre Wheeler, whose extremely bearish views were right; it means Ezion is the best stock for short, not long.

JP Morgan's extremely bullish 'Overweight' rating on Ezion with TP S$1.70 dated 23 Nov 2015 was the champion among all of them.


KGI Fraser: Write-downs required to bring values to reality, maintained 'SELL' on Ezion, TP S$0.11

28 Jan 2016

Slash forecasts and TP; maintain SELL. Given the current trends of utilization and dayrates in the offshore industry, we now expect a prolonged down cycle as the rig oversupply may last longer than we had initially expected. Major offshore E&P companies are slashing budgets by a further 20-30% in 2016, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. This marks the first time since the 1980s where global capex has been reduced for two consecutive years. We thus lower our FY16-17 forecasts by 15-21% based on lower utilization rates of 60%/60% (previously 65%/70%) for FY16/17F, while keeping FY15F unchanged. As a result, we cut our TP to S$0.11, pegged to 6x FY16F EV/EBITDA (previously 0.4x FY16Y P/B), which is inline with its global peer average. Our TP also implies 0.2x Adjusted FY16F P/B.

We expect massive write-downs as down cycle continues. Against the backdrop of an industry oversupply and further capex cuts, we expect companies to write-down the value of their assets in the next two years to reflect the realities of the current market. We are expecting a S$700m (~30% of total FY16F PPE value, based on current market values) write-down of Ezion’s total assets over the next two years, resulting in its net gearing rising to 2.8x, well above the 0.7x peer average. We believe this figure is conservative and may present more downside as offshore rig utilization rates remain around the 60-70% levels for the next two years. There are still ~75 jackups scheduled to be delivered this year, according to RigLogix, while current owners are not scrapping rigs fast enough to balance the markets.

Multiple downside risks; no visible upside. We expect to see multiple downside risks for Ezion in the next three years given the aging profile of its fleet. The average jackup age securing new contracts over the past year is 22 years old, and are only usually for short term contracts (<1 year).

This places Ezion in a tight spot as ~60% of its units are >30 years old and we believe it is unlikely that these units will secure contracts in the next three years. In addition, the planned US$350m remaining capex for the 9 units to be delivered over the next 12 months will result in negative free cash flows over the period, which we expect to put pressure on its balance sheet.

Ezion’s net gearing is currently at 1.3x (but 2.8x assuming our estimated write-downs) vs 0.7x peer average (even after peers have taken 10-30% write-downs in recent quarters).