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Post by oldman on Oct 19, 2013 8:20:15 GMT 7
As investors, we have to take a position in the marketplace in order to make money. Remember that we are not in the market to predict the STI. We are here to make money from the markets. Predicting the STI direction without actually putting any money into the market will only help our ego and not our wallets... unless of course, you make your money from teaching others how to invest and you need to be seen to be correct in your analysis.
To be honest, if you make a prediction any which way, you are bound to be correct, sooner or later. So, don't put any value on those who tell you, I told you so...... because you too can do the same. Make a prediction. Wait long enough and you will be 100% correct. Just don't fool yourself that you are good at predicting the market direction. The proof is in the amount of money you make by sticking to your position.
Real investors are those who make real money from the markets. They must always have a position in the marketplace - whether this is bullish or bearish ... they cannot be wishy washy. You cannot make real money if you are indecisive. Real investors know that they will lose money if they read the direction of the market wrongly and hence, real investors always protect their downside by only investing with money that they can set aside for years.
Finally, always remember that real investors make their money from the markets directly. If it is in their DNA to share, they will do so freely... and will never sell you a get-rich-quick investment course!
For those of us who make money directly from the markets, we know how difficult it is for the novice investor to start investing. The least we can do is to show you the ropes free of charge. We will never want to take any part of your savings just to show you the ropes. This money is needed by you to start off your investment journey. Hence, my conscience will certainly not allow me to take such money. I rather share freely, or not at all.
The best example of a real investor is of course, Warren Buffett.
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Post by zuolun on Nov 27, 2013 17:38:37 GMT 7
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Post by candy188 on Nov 30, 2013 8:44:19 GMT 7
Dr Chan Yan Chong mentioned that he will not conduct a complete 100% clearance (sell all his stocks ) even near the finale of bull market, reason being he will develop a sense of lost. He further reiterated that it is human nature to doubt one's decision & regret the decision since one will not be able to sell at the highest price, thus unable to sleep well at night.  Hi oldman, thank you for showing us the rope free.  As investors, we have to take a position in the marketplace in order to make money.
Remember that we are not in the market to predict the STI. We are here to make money from the markets. Predicting the STI direction without actually putting any money into the market will only help our ego and not our wallets... unless of course, you make your money from teaching others how to invest and you need to be seen to be correct in your analysis.  To be honest, if you make a prediction any which way, you are bound to be correct, sooner or later. So, don't put any value on those who tell you, I told you so...... because you too can do the same. Make a prediction. Wait long enough and you will be 100% correct. Just don't fool yourself that you are good at predicting the market direction. The proof is in the amount of money you Make by Sticking to your Position. Real investors are those who Make Real Money from the markets. They must ALWAYS Have a Position in the Marketplace - whether this is Bullish or Bearish ... they cannot be wishy washy.
You cannot make real money if you are indecisive. Real investors know that they will lose money if they read the direction of the market wrongly and hence, real investors always PROTECT their DOWNSIDE by only Investing with money that they can Set Aside for Years. Finally, always remember that real investors make their money from the markets directly. If it is in their DNA to share, they will do so freely... and will never sell you a get-rich-quick investment course!  For those of us who make money directly from the markets, we know how difficult it is for the novice investor to start investing. The least we can do is to show you the ropes free of charge. We will never want to take any part of your savings just to show you the ropes. This money is needed by you to start off your investment journey. Hence, my conscience will certainly not allow me to take such money. I rather share freely, or not at all. The best example of a real investor is of course, Warren Buffett.
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Post by zuolun on Feb 5, 2014 17:00:54 GMT 7
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Post by oldman on Feb 5, 2014 19:27:04 GMT 7
I don't entirely agree. Not easy to tell the difference between honest and dishonest management. Top names invested in Enron and Worldcom and they too could not tell the difference. I also disagree that fundamental investors should ignore the market. On the contrary, we should use Mr Market instead.  |
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Post by candy188 on Feb 5, 2014 22:10:56 GMT 7
Hi Oldman, would like to clarify your statement:  "I also disagree that fundamental investors should ignore the market. On the contrary, we should use Mr Market instead."Do you mean that we should capitalise on the rare opportunity to scoop up stock when price plunge to attractive level due to irrational investor behaviour & discard our overvalued stocks during euphoria stage?  I don't entirely agree. Not easy to tell the difference between honest and dishonest management. Top names invested in Enron and Worldcom and they too could not tell the difference.  I also disagree that fundamental investors should ignore the market. On the contrary, we should use Mr Market instead.  |
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Post by oldman on Feb 6, 2014 4:18:14 GMT 7
Yes, when the market is bearish, fundamental investors should not rush to pick up stocks. They should instead, try to understand the market and evaluate the demand and supply pressures. Cheap can become much cheaper as the market tanks. What was previously an attractive level to buy may not be so attractive anymore. Timing is also important to the fundamental investor unless one has unlimited ammunition. If you think that we are just going through a correction, then you may want to pick up more fundamentally sound stocks. On the other hand, if you think the market is going to plunge, then waiting longer makes more sense. Either way, a fundamental investor still has to have a feel of Mr Market. Put another way, if fundamental investing works and one does not need to bother about Mr Market, there will be lots more successful fundamental investors. The truth is that there are very few successful fundamental investors. Hence, there must be something much more complicated than simple fundamental investing principles. And what can be more complicated than Mr Market ...... For me, I think this is just a deep correction rather than a collapse. There are lots of fear in the market and yet, the market is holding relatively well. Only time will tell if I read Mr Market correctly. Hi Oldman, would like to clarify your statement: "I also disagree that fundamental investors should ignore the market. On the contrary, we should use Mr Market instead."Do you mean that we should capitalise on the rare opportunity to scoop up stock when price plunge to attractive level due to irrational investor behaviour & discard our overvalued stocks during euphoria stage? I don't entirely agree. Not easy to tell the difference between honest and dishonest management. Top names invested in Enron and Worldcom and they too could not tell the difference. I also disagree that fundamental investors should ignore the market. On the contrary, we should use Mr Market instead. |
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Post by candy188 on May 11, 2014 18:28:09 GMT 7
Hi Oldman, Thank you for the in-depth explanation.  Emotion control & gut feeling seems to be crucial elements for successful investors... perhaps it is something that can't be learnt easily due to character.  Particularly find these 2 traits outlined in the article that are indeed tough for majority of the investors. 16 Proven Personality Traits of Successful Investors1) Self-aware
Good investors sense danger in their guts, process it, and make a decision with their brains. That feedback loop appears important for risk management.
2) Doesn’t seek to confirm, disproves instead
Confirmation bias – our human need to find evidence to support our own ideas – may be at work when emotional investors buy more stock when it drops. Buying more when stock goes down (dollar cost averaging) lowers our entry point but it ignores why the stock dropped. Good investors re-examine constantly.
Yes, when the market is bearish, fundamental investors should NOT rush to pick up stocks. They should instead, try to understand the market and evaluate the demand and supply pressures.
Cheap can become much cheaper as the market tanks.  What was previously an attractive level to buy may not be so attractive anymore. Timing is also important to the fundamental investor unless one has unlimited ammunition. 1) If you think that we are just going through a Correction, then you may want to pick up More fundamentally sound stocks.
2) On the other hand, if you think the market is going to Plunge, then Waiting longer makes more sense.
Either way, a fundamental investor still has to have a FEEL of Mr Market.  Put another way, if fundamental investing works and one does not need to bother about Mr Market, there will be lots more successful fundamental investors. The truth is that there are very few successful fundamental investors. Hence, there must be something much more complicated than
simple fundamental investing principles. And what can be more complicated than Mr Market ...... Hi Oldman, would like to clarify your statement: "I also disagree that fundamental investors should ignore the market. On the contrary, we should use Mr Market instead."Do you mean that we should capitalise on the rare opportunity to scoop up stock when price plunge to attractive level due to irrational investor behaviour & discard our overvalued stocks during euphoria stage? |
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Post by kenjifm on Oct 14, 2014 19:52:03 GMT 7
In my investment, FCF is always one of my major concern.
Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow (OCF) – Capital Expenditures
A positive free cash flow means the company has enough cash inflows to maintain operations and meet its capital expenditure plans.
A negative free cash flow means the company needs to use cash reserves, or raise cash through the sale of assets, stock or debt.
Start Simple and you will find it interesting.
Another Good Deed Done!
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Post by zuolun on Mar 17, 2015 16:18:12 GMT 7
"Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting.” ~~ Jesse Livermore迈向致富之路 ~ 10 Mar 2015 耐得住才是大赢家 ~ 彼得.林奇（Peter Lynch)《学以致富》
当大风雪或者飓风来袭的时，人们的自然反应是去采取一些行动来保护自己免于受到伤害；同样的情形，我们也会想办法采取一些行动免于崩盘的危机，结果对自己的权益并没有大多助益反而有害。人们在预防空头所受到的损失，比空头真正莅临时所受的损失来的更多。
投资人最可能犯的错误，就是在股票型基金里杀进杀出，以期最佳波段。他们常犯的错误是提前出场，以避免预期来临的回档，或是手上拿着一大笔钱，期待下一个回档来临时以更便宜的价格敲进，以致为了预防空头时段，投资人往往错失多头股市的机会。
回顾1954年以来史坦普500的表现就可以发现，如果没有抓到短时期的上升波段，对于投资人的回报率影响有多大。如果你这40年来能够完全投资股市，你的平均回报率为11。5%，但是如果你在这40年里40个涨幅最大的月份中没有投入股市，你的投资回报率就只剩下2.7%。
这里还有一个统计数字可共参考，假设你的运气很差，自1970年以来你都买在该年度的最高点，则你的年平均回报率只有8.5%；而如果你抓波段的功力很高，每年都买在股市的最低点，则你的回报率成为10.1%。最能干及最差劲的投资人相差也不过1.6%。
当然，你也许很愿意为了那多出的1.6%回报率而付出更多心力，但是这个统计数字真正要告诉我们的是，抓波段操作并非真正的赢家，真正的赢家是从头到尾投资在股市，并且投资在具有成长性的企业里。
其实，最能对抗熊市的策略就是设定时间表，在每个月、每四个月，或每六个月等固定的时间里投资固定的金额，这样就可以免除追高杀低的风险及忐忑不安的心情。
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Post by zuolun on Nov 5, 2015 9:24:42 GMT 7
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Post by vbequity on Nov 30, 2015 8:01:02 GMT 7
Hi all, I am seeking feedbacks. As a newbie with limited capital, it is really difficult to hold for "long term", especially when a company does not offer dividend and the market price remains almost unchanged for long period. It is as good as putting money in a bank that offer almost no interest. But deep down, you know the company is undervalued.
How can a newbie approach such company? Thanks.
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Post by roberto on Nov 30, 2015 10:30:02 GMT 7
Hi all, I am seeking feedbacks. As a newbie with limited capital, it is really difficult to hold for "long term", especially when a company does not offer dividend and the market price remains almost unchanged for long period. It is as good as putting money in a bank that offer almost no interest. But deep down, you know the company is undervalued. How can a newbie approach such company? Thanks. Assuming your judgement on the company is right, I would say it's a risk you have to consider if it's worth taking. God knows when market will wake up and realise what you already know. |
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