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Post by zuolun on Oct 1, 2014 12:15:38 GMT 7
Never catch a falling knife — oldman A falling knife in the stock market refers to a stock that experiences a sharp decline and it may collapse > 50% from its breakout/pivotal point, b4 bottoming out. SembCorp Marine — A "Waterfall Decline" or 5-Wave down Chart Pattern Interim TP S$3.60, Next TP S$3.05SembCorp Marine had a spinning top @ S$3.68 (-0.06, 1.6%) with high volume done at 3.25m shares on 1 Oct 2014 at 1.10pm.
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Post by zuolun on Oct 2, 2014 0:24:03 GMT 7
SembCorp Marine (weekly) — Bearish Symmetrical / Rectangle Breakout Interim TP S$2.85 Never catch a falling knife — oldman A falling knife in the stock market refers to a stock that experiences a sharp decline and it may collapse > 50% from its breakout/pivotal point, b4 bottoming out. SembCorp Marine — A "Waterfall Decline" or 5-Wave down Chart Pattern Interim TP S$3.60, Next TP S$3.05SembCorp Marine had a spinning top @ S$3.68 (-0.06, 1.6%) with high volume done at 3.25m shares on 1 Oct 2014 at 1.10pm.
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Post by kenjifm on Oct 2, 2014 18:42:04 GMT 7
Previously mention the trend is your friend. This gap down have decided the $3 fate.
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Post by zuolun on Oct 14, 2014 9:20:46 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Nov 5, 2014 9:33:45 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Nov 17, 2014 16:25:10 GMT 7
ZL bro, what do u think of glp? Break down today. Sembmarine as well simplemind, Sembcorp Marine to retest the last low @ S$3.05 scored on 4th Oct 2011 and hit lower low. Decline in oil prices to weigh on Singapore stocksBy Ryan Huang 27 October 2014 Oil prices have been pushed to four-year lows, driven by concerns that supply has been outpacing demand and a softening outlook over the global economy, particularly in Europe and China.Since its peak back in June this year, at US$103.85 per barrel, WTI oil price dropped by nearly 20 percent to hover around the US$80 level in mid-October. The falling prices are in line with the demand outlook, which has been getting gloomier in recent weeks. It also has not helped that both the International Monetary Fund and World Bank cut their global growth outlooks in early October. Some pressure also came from the supply side. Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kuwait have indicated they will not be cutting production to support prices, but are still keen to maintain their market share. If oil prices remain low for a longer period, global cyclical stocks will likely be hit. In turn, this means that Singapore’s stock market would likely suffer the most in the region due to the country’s relatively high exposure to global cyclical stocks. For example, MSCI Singapore dominates a 41 percent weight of global cyclical, compared with 27 percent for Thailand and 8 percent for Indonesia. Investor sentiment in the offshore and marine sector will be weighed down by low oil prices as this typically makes it less profitable for production and exploration work. The industry is already facing a number of other obstacles, such as a supply overhang of rigs which will persist at least for the next two years. Sembcorp Marine under pressureOne of the stocks that was punished in recent weeks by investors was the Singapore-listed Sembcorp Marine (SMM). The company builds, owns, repairs and converts ships. It also has subsidiaries that provide equipment rental, cleaning and maintenance services. Since the start of July till mid-October, WTI oil prices have dipped over 20 percent. Within the same period, SMM’s stock price has fallen nearly 10 percent on the bleaker outlook over black gold. With falling oil prices making production less profitable, there are higher concerns that oil explorers could cut back spending, which will affect SMM’s shipyard business. Any further decline in oil prices would likely weigh on SMM. COSCO weighed downAnother counter that has also been weighed down by oil pressures, though to a lesser extent is COSCO Corporation (S). The company owns and operates vessels, builds rigs and provides marine engineering services. Since July till mid-October, the stock has lost over 18 percent amid concerns that customer orders would be deferred on softening global outlooks. One contract involved Sevan Drilling, which pushed back the delivery of a drilling unit by up to three years. The delivery was supposed to take place in the second quarter of this year, but the new agreement now leaves the option open for the contract to ultimately be terminated if not exercised. No upside on the horizon for airlinesThe drop in fuel prices should be good news for airline stocks, but it looks like they are still facing strong headwinds. Investor concerns appear to be driven largely by longer-term overcapacity concerns, intense competition and tight margins. From July to mid-October, the Bloomberg World Airlines Index is down by 2.7 percent. Zooming into the Singapore-listed airlines, the picture looks worse. For example, Singapore Airlines has drifted lower by over 6 percent, while Tiger Airways Holdings has plunged 41.3 percent during the same period. The US$80 per barrel level will be closely watched as it is widely believed to be the breakeven point for oil fields and rigs to operate profitably. If prices fall below this territory, we could see this spur a deeper selloff in global cyclical stocks.
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Post by zuolun on Dec 4, 2014 7:01:05 GMT 7
SembCorp Marine — Longterm downtrend intact, Interim TP S$2.61 SembCorp Marine closed with a long black marubozu @ S$2.91 (-0.08, -2.7%) with high volume done at 6.05m shares on 3 Dec 2014. Immediate support @ S$2.73, immediate resistance @ S$3.03 SembCorp Marine (weekly) — Classic MOD chart pattern TP S$2.10
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Post by zuolun on Jan 2, 2015 5:00:22 GMT 7
3 things you need to know about KepCorp and Sembcorp Marine — 29 Dec 2014 Sembcorp Marine’s new subsidiary, PT SMOE Singgar Mulia Engineering in Indonesia — 28 Dec 2014 Is there a way to find out a fund/SSH's average price in a particular stock? Some may have been involved in a stock for more than 10 years, and to manually compute yourself using SGX announcements, one can only go back to 2010 (SGX's company disclosure page). The latest percentage of shares owned by any major longterm funds/SSHs (updated on the SGX's company disclosure page) is more important than the average purchase price bought over a long period of time (more than 10 years). One good example is SembCorp Marine. The stock has peaked @ S$5.03 and the longterm downtrend chart indicates that persistent strong selling pressure has been in place since 2011 till to-date and it's not done yet. SMM's strong selling pressure won't disappear overnite because when longterm funds buy; they'll buy, buy-on-dip and hold-long-long. However, when they sell; they'll sell and short-sell-long-long, thus the downtrend resumes after every dead cat bounce. Supply > Demand = Decrease in price.
The most heavy-weight diamond is the one in SMM...it has been rolling down from the cliff, slow and steady...
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SembMar
Jan 16, 2015 17:37:42 GMT 7
Post by zuolun on Jan 16, 2015 17:37:42 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Feb 9, 2015 18:05:00 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Feb 12, 2015 8:46:31 GMT 7
Sete Brasil woes may spill over; MaybankKimEng rated UW ~ SELL on SMM (TP S$2.65) and HOLD on KepCorp (TP S$8.60). ~ 9 Feb 2015 Scandal draws in yards Bribery allegations have emerged against five Brazilian and Singaporean yard groups in the billowing Petrobras corruption scandal.By Eric Martin 10 Feb 2015 Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine have denied wrongdoing after Pedro Barusco, a former director of Brazilian drilling unit operator Sete Brasil and former engineering manager at Petrobras, linked affiliates of the shipbuilders to a scam to pay bribes in order to garner contracts with Petrobras, the government-controlled oil company. Local media report that Barusco also implicated Brazilian shipyards Estaleiro Atlantico Sul (EAS), Estaleiro Enseada do Paraguacu and Estaleiro Rio Grande, all of which have major Japanese shipyard groups as significant shareholders. “We refute allegations made in media reports on Keppel FELS’ involvement in the scandal surrounding Petrobras,” said Keppel Corp in a statement, referring to rig building subsidiary Keppel FELS. “We would like to emphasise that Keppel Group has a code of conduct which prohibits, among others, bribery and corruption.” Barusco reportedly said in testimony filed in a Brazilian federal court that the shipbuilders paid a 0.9% kickbacks to a group that included himself, other company officials at Petrobras and Sete, and Joao Vaccari Neto, the treasurer for the Workers’ Party of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff. Agent accusedThe executive accused Keppel FELS’s Brazil representative, Zwi Skornicki, of involvement in the scheme, according to various media reports. But Keppel said that Skornicki is an employee of its outside agent, Eagle do Brasil, and the agency agreement states that he “shall not make, either directly or indirectly, any improper payment of money or anything of value to an Official in connection with the contract”. Barusco also implicated Guilherme Esteves, the representative of Sembcorp Marine’s Jurong Aracruz shipyard. SembCorp’s denialSembcorp said in a statement that it “wishes to state that Sembcorp Marine did not make any illegal payment and the group's policies and contracts prohibit bribery and unethical behaviour.” Enseada said in a statement to TradeWinds that Barusco only made vague references to the yard group and never provided any evidence. “Enseada does not and has never taken part in any type of illegal operation and reaffirms that the contracts [with Sete Brasil and Petrobras] were awarded by means of selective processes and bids in accordance with the law in force," the company said. Ecovix, the company that owns Estaleiro Rio Grande, declined to comment while EAS did not immediately respond. A spokeswoman for Sete Brasil tells TradeWinds that the company became aware of Barusco's allegations through the media and has requested information from authorities to decide on a legal response. Petrobras contracting has been the subject of intense scrutiny by police for months over payment of so-called propinas, Portuguese for “tips”, to win contracts with the company. The bribes have allegedly been funnelled to political campaigns.
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Post by zuolun on Feb 13, 2015 10:08:45 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Mar 13, 2015 10:51:25 GMT 7
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Post by sptl123 on Mar 16, 2015 22:59:03 GMT 7
Bro Zuolun, I decided and had close my long position in SMM . Looking at the chart, I am incline to switch to the short side for now. Do you also think the immediate trend of SMM is bearish?
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Post by zuolun on Mar 17, 2015 9:02:17 GMT 7
Bro Zuolun, I decided and had close my long position in SMM . Looking at the chart, I am incline to switch to the short side for now. Do you also think the immediate trend of SMM is bearish? SembCorp Marine hit low of S$2.93, high of S$2.96 and traded @ S$2.94 (-0.01, -0.3%) with thin volume done at 361,800 shares on 17 Mar 2015 at 10.05am. See the big picture of oil and oil related companies...all the charts are pointing down = "one-way ticket". SembCorp Marine — Descending triangle formation, Interim TP S$2.61, next TP S$2.10 Singapore oil stocks could be heading for more trouble ~ CMC Markets says investors should re-examine Singapore oil stocks following a plunge in oil prices last Friday. The brokerage says Keppel Corp (BN4.SG) is vulnerable. "Not only have they rebounded the most [among Singapore oil stocks], fresh news over a huge turnout at a political protest in Brazil could also lead to a reassessment of Keppel Corp's close association to their key clients in Brazil, who are themselves embroiled in a corruption scandal," Nicholas Teo a market analyst at CMC Markets said in a note on Monday. According to CMC Markets, SembCorp Marine (S51.SG) might also see selling pressure, as it has exposure to similar clients as Keppel Corp. The brokerage add that Keppel has not booked any significant orders year-to-date. "Furthermore, the current orders they have on hand may also prove vulnerable to cancellations due to the bleak outlook for oil," Teo says. Shares of the other two oil firms, Ezion (5ME.SG) and Ezra (5DN.SG) have lost back almost their entire January rally and are languishing near their December lows, CMC adds. ~ 16 Mar 2015 Why is no one paying attention to Singapore oil stocks anymore? ~ 12 Mar 2015 Keppel and SembMarine started at ‘hold’ and ‘sell’ with target prices of $8.17 and $2.57 respectively by KGIBy Trinity Chua 16 Mar 2015 KGI is initiating its coverage for the two biggest companies in Singapore Oil and Gas space, with a “Hold” rating for Keppel (Target Price: $8.17) and a “Sell” call for SembMarine (TP: $2.57). The research house paints a bleak future for the shipyard sector, noting that the oversupply situation is not likely to improve this year, no thanks to low oil prices. The yards’ only saving grace is their decent dividend yields. Keppel pays 5.5%, while SembMarine and Yangzijiang are yielding around 4.5%. “For investors with a longer time horizon of more than a year, we would recommend buying them at dips,” says KGI. For the shorter term, KGI says Keppel and SembMarine may see possible delays and cancellations from Petrobras/Sete Brazil and a weak order book win momentum. KGI estimates order wins for Keppel and SembMarine to be below their 10-year order win average of $5.8 billion and $4 billion a year. But Keppel’s more diversified business and its property exposure may keep the company going during these hard times. On the flip side, if oil prices recover, SembMarine may make a quicker come back than Keppel. On the sector as a whole, orders will be scarce and there is the increasing risks of order cancellations like that of Vard Holdings, whose order for two supply vessels was cancelled over the weekend. The oil glut is not likely to ease either. Faced with rising US supply and OPEC’s refusal to cut production, KGI says, the estimated oversupply of 2 million barrel per day is expected to keep prices down this year. There are around 240 jackups and 125 floaters older than three decades and these will need replacement. If they are not retired, there is a chance of a massive oversupply situation this year. “In a worst case scenario that older jackups are not retired, we could potentially be looking at an oversupply of close to 170 jackups,” says KGI. It adds that only half of new build floaters and a meagre 12% of new build jackups are contracted out at the moment. Keppel is down 0.1% at $8.69 while SembMarine is down 0.3% at $2.97 at 2:04 p.m. SembCorp Marine — Longterm downtrend intact, Interim TP S$2.61 SembCorp Marine closed with a long black marubozu @ S$2.91 (-0.08, -2.7%) with high volume done at 6.05m shares on 3 Dec 2014. Immediate support @ S$2.73, immediate resistance @ S$3.03 SembCorp Marine (weekly) — Classic MOD chart pattern TP S$2.10
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