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Post by zuolun on May 29, 2015 13:53:06 GMT 7
Noble ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim TP S$0.74, next TP S$0.63Noble had a black marubozu and traded @ S$0.78 (-0.03, -3.7%) with high volume done at 64.3m shares on 29 May 2015 at 2.45pm. Immediate support @ S$0.775, immediate resistance @ S$0.81.  Noble ~ A "Waterfall Decline" with 5-Wave down, 1st TP S$0.925, 2nd TP S$0.88, 3rd TP S$0.775Noble had a long-legged hammer @ S$0.865 (-0.045, -4.9%) with high volume done at 87.9m shares on 9 Apr 2015 at 2.25pm. Immediate support @ S$0.845, immediate resistance @ S$0.92. 
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Noble
May 31, 2015 12:26:33 GMT 7
Post by zuolun on May 31, 2015 12:26:33 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Jun 1, 2015 17:12:11 GMT 7
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Noble
Jun 2, 2015 5:12:30 GMT 7
pain likes this
Post by zuolun on Jun 2, 2015 5:12:30 GMT 7
采访来宝集团埃尔曼 ~ 亚洲第一大原材料供应商来宝集团创始人埃尔曼为您讲述逆境中成功的经验。(An interview with Noble Group's founder, Richard M. Elman: Road to success) Hong Kong taipan rebuffed by China digs into U.S. natural gas ~ 9 Nov 2012 来宝的价值2015年03月23日
商品交易商来宝集团（Noble）是海峡时报指数成份股，算是蓝筹股之一。自冰山研究在网上发布报告质疑该公司的账目后，股价从1.19元下跌至上周五的0.875元，跌幅达27％。
在这期间，来宝创办人艾礼文及多名公司董事纷纷进场吸购，以稳定市场的信心。穆迪及标准普尔这两家信贷评级机构也发布文告，力挺来宝。此外，两家投资管理机构景顺及保诚保险旗下的资金管理公司瀚亚投资，也在最近将持股权提高至5％以上。日前，市场又谣传，来宝可能成为中国或日本商品相关公司的收购目标。
来宝的股价，便在好坏消息交织及拉扯下，剧烈摇晃。根据来宝最近公布的业绩，该股每股账面净资产是0.75美元（1.038新元），但冰山研究声称，来宝每股只值得0.10新元。
来宝的价值，究竟是多少？股价是否已经触底？这些问题的答案，取决于来宝的账目是否如冰山研究所言，即含有很多的水分。此外，来宝的大股东中，不少是机构投资者，包括中国主权基金中国投资公司（中投）。它们接下来的动作，将决定来宝的命运及股价走势。
冰山研究至今共发出三份报告，分别指来宝集团对不良资产，没有拨出足够的资产减值（impairment）；夸大商品合约及期货的公允价值（fair value gains）；转移实际债务及缺乏有效的内部监管。
来宝在2月26日发布全年业绩时，为资产减值拨出4.38亿美元，其中2亿美元用于注销它在兖州煤矿的投资。兖州煤矿在澳大利亚股市上市，冰山研究指出，即使来宝在该投资注销了2亿美元，但在来宝的财务表上，这项投资的剩余价值还是高达3.22亿美元。它根据兖州煤矿的股价计算，来宝还必须进一步注销兖州投资3.18亿美元。
在公允价值方面，冰山研究声称，来宝在签订长期合约及期货当天，便将公允价值的盈余进账，但没有实际的现金流。它指出，来宝账目中的盈利，大部分来自公允价值的盈余，而这些公允价值的盈余并没有全部转化成为实际的现金盈利。
在债务方面，冰山研究指来宝的实际净债务高达50亿美元，比来宝财务报表显示的高出64%。来宝去年脱售农产品公司51%股权给中粮集团领头的财团，除了获得近15亿美元之外，也从这家农产品公司取回股东贷款18亿美元。但这家目前称为中粮来宝的公司，是通过银行融资偿还股东贷款给来宝集团。来宝与中粮集团分别为中粮来宝的银行贷款担保承担49%及51%。冰山研究指出，来宝集团应该将这笔担保算入债务，总值14亿美元。
冰山在第三份报告还提出多项批评，包括来宝的审计公司安永以及两家力挺来宝的信贷评级机构。它也质疑来宝的内部监管，指两名独立董事任职长达19年，负责风险管理的主管两年内换了五个人。
此外，它提醒投资者，该公司的创办人之一在2013年脱售所有股权，而中投也在去年卖出3亿股，将持股权从13.8%降低至9.4%。它也向新加坡监管当局，提出几项“建议”。
冰山上周六发布的第三份报告，很可能会在市场激起更大的风波。因此，来宝的股价将在好坏消息之间继续摇晃。这只股的贝塔系数是1.44，属于大起大落的股票。从交易所的资料显示，卖空来宝的空盘相当大。一旦有利好消息，卖空者被迫补仓，股价也可能转向。
然而，来宝的风波还未平息，这只股只适合短线交易。心脏弱的人，最好还是暂时避开为妙。************************************************************************* 来宝丑闻揭开大宗商品贸易潜规则2015年03月02日
本月早些时候，一家名不见经传的研究小组“Iceberg Research”指控新加坡来宝集团(Noble Group)有财务作假、夸大利润的嫌疑，不过这家亚洲最大的大宗商品交易商对此予以否认。不同于普通的互泼脏水，两者的口水仗为我们披露了很多大宗商品交易商的“潜规则”。
本周四，来宝集团公布了2014年财报，其净利润为1.32亿美元，其中第四季度的净亏损达到2.4亿美元，主要因与Yancoal公司相关2亿美元的资产减值。在财报声明中，该公司强调了其资产负债表优良的流动性，并拿出净利润的35%作为全年分红，因该公司目前“对长期资本支出的需求非常少。”
但是Iceberg在本次财报之前对来宝的指控中提出了一个非常有意思的主题：该公司的运营现金流可能来自于创新性的结构化库存回购。
Iceberg在报告中表示： 根据Iceberg的表述，来宝手中合约的公允价值已经大大超越其它对手公司，甚至是已经破产的安然公司(Enron)在顶峰时期的3.5倍。来宝可能在每次合约刚签署时便将“利润”都入账。
来宝则称自己的商业模型的设计就是“轻资产”。相比于很多同类型公司手持大量实体资产，来宝更多用期货合约来维持买卖。合约的交易加上主动对冲程序，最终生成利润的过程仅需要很少的现金流。
本周四，来宝公司CEO Yusuf Alireza在投资者电话会议上表示，不能以传统的逐日结算(mark-to-market)的思路看该公司的利润和亏损，因为这样不能准确的反映相对于合约存在的库存和短期对冲措施。
但Iceberg强调，应该将未兑现的商品合约价值损益计入财报。其实Iceberg质疑的是该公司不断增长的公允价值。通常来说，当商品货物运输完毕并交割，合约作废以保持流通公允价值的稳定。但是来宝的公允价值却持续上升，按Iceberg的说法是来宝不愿意将合约变现而持续计入资产。
由如下同类型公司净公允价值对比，可以看出来宝与其他商品巨头的差异十分明显： 按Iceberg的说法，来宝将越来越多的仓位积累起来(可能通过将到期的合约换成期限更长的合约手段来实现)以掩盖不佳的表现。但来宝公司CEO Alireza则称这反映了该公司的灵活思路，他们是为了更好的应对周期性变化的商品市场。
如果来宝是一家“重资产”的交易商，来宝CEO Alireza补充道，则该公司为了保证供给端的稳定性，需要自己拥有矿山或者炼厂，但来宝没有选择这种方式。
Alireza用当前原油(60.22, -0.08, -0.13%)市场的远期升水状态来解释其策略。“现在我们看到了显著的远期升水，所以我们利用这一点来囤积原油现货，然后用远期期货合约来对冲市场风险。”他表示，因实物和期货合约之间的割裂才会出现逐日结算的风险，但是这么做的目的是为了驾驭这些仓位，直到合约中隐含的套利机会可以兑现。
Iceberg则指出作为轻资产的公司自然有好处，但也会对周转资金产生压力。该机构称来宝的每日周转资金情况自2010年来不断恶化： 而来宝表示买方和卖方互相提供支付服务是其不同于其它公司的特点，特别是随着实物原油的业务规模越来越大，这样的服务为其业务扩展提供了支撑。
但是Iceberg认为靠对手方提供资金可能让公司面临短期融资风险，类似于2008年的银行业危机。
而且来宝如何为库存融资成为了关注焦点：来宝在财务披露之时进行了多大规模的库存回购？Iceberg写道：交易商将商品库存卖给银行并约定在未来某个时点将其购回的行为叫库存回购。在第三份报告中，我们将解释为何来宝付出的利息水平要比其财报中公开的债务水平高。我们认为，到了季末，库存便消失，这是难以解释的高利率成本背后的原因。Iceberg表示，库存回购令人担心的不是粉饰债务水平本身，而是通过伪造流动性而影响了运营现金流。
Iceberg认为，来宝缺乏创造现金的能力，而且又使用了有害的回购手段——这刺激了来宝持续将亏损的头寸滚动至远期，让公司的财报看起来很美。
自Iceberg2月14日报告发布后至本周五，来宝股价累计下挫18%，当前市值67.39亿新元。彭博数据显示，来宝基于预估利润的市盈率目前为7.72倍，较五年均值低42%。此外值得一提的是，中国中粮集团在去年收购了来宝旗下农业有限公司51%的股权。
Iceberg说的到底对不对，我们无从知晓，但其视角和思路值得关注。至少短期来看来宝和Iceberg的口水仗将继续打下去。
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Post by zuolun on Jun 3, 2015 14:38:59 GMT 7
陈九霖：“墙倒众人推，既倒不怕推。日后垒铜墙，欢迎大家推。” "When the wall is falling down, everyone is aware of a stampede. Don't worry, in future we will build a copper wall and we welcome everyone to push it down again." ~ ex-CEO of CAO, Chen Jiulin  You can check the Daily Short Sell Report on Noble, here. Noble ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim S$0.74, next TP S$0.63Noble had a black marubozu and traded @ S$0.71 (-0.035, -4.7%) with high volume done at 54.4m shares on 3 Jun 2015 at 3.33pm. 
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Post by zuolun on Jun 10, 2015 11:48:40 GMT 7
Never catch a falling knife — oldman A falling knife in the stock market refers to a stock that experiences a sharp decline and it may collapse > 50% from its breakout/pivotal point, b4 bottoming out.  You can check the Daily Short Sell Report on Noble, here. Noble shares fall as critic calls for chairman’s resignation ~ 9 Jun 2015 3 big risks facing Noble that investors must know ~ 9 Jun 2015 Not everyone is negative about Noble ~ 27 May 2015 Has Muddy Waters joined forces with Iceberg to turn on the heat for Noble? ~ 13 Apr 2015 How to use the 3 dead crosses as a guide to short:1. When the 1st deadly dead cross (50d SMA crosses below 100d SMA) appears, wait for the price to bounce up (the higher the better) then short. 2. When the 2nd dead cross (50d SMA crosses below 200d SMA) appears, wait for the price to bounce up (the higher the better) then short. 3. When the 3rd dead cross (100d SMA crosses below 200d SMA) appears, wait for the price to bounce up (the higher the better) then short. 4. After all the three (3) dead crosses have appeared; every dead cat bounce (the higher the better), short. 5. Repeat the same process over and over again as long as the strong downtrend prevails. Noble ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, TP S$0.63Noble had a spinning top and traded unchanged @ S$0.66 with 30.6m shares done on 10 Jun 2015 at 0101 hrs.  Noble ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim S$0.74, next TP S$0.63Noble had a black marubozu and traded @ S$0.71 (-0.035, -4.7%) with high volume done at 54.4m shares on 3 Jun 2015 at 3.33pm.
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Post by zuolun on Jun 11, 2015 14:59:08 GMT 7
Bro Zuolun, you are so right ! By the way, it is so amusing; all the up and down are of the Fibonacci Level; the 61.8% retracement and the 138.2% extension ! Only if I know early..... Well late better than never; next time I hoot big big when they goreng a stock~ up or now !  Do cheng kays follow Fibonacci Level or Finonacci Level predict cheng kays's actions ??    Do cheng kays follow Fibonacci Level or Finonacci Level predict cheng kays's actions ?? - Fibonacci Retracement is one of the acceptable tools widely used by most chartists; including the cheng kays in the Singapore stock market.
- It should be the cheng kays following the Fibonacci Retracement levels, not the other way round.
I always emphasize the importance of drawing your own charts because technical analysis is an art and science; beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  If you don't know yourself well and use other people's charts to trade stocks; what you see in their charts may not be what you want to see. There's more than one way to skin a cat:- Fibonacci Retracement
- Bearish Gartley
- Three Dead Crosses
- Support and Resistance
- Linear Regression
- Ichimoku Clouds
- Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)
, Do cheng kays follow Fibonacci Level or Finonacci Level predict cheng kays's actions? - Fibonacci Retracement is one of the acceptable tools widely used by most chartists; including the cheng kays in the Singapore stock market.
- It should be the cheng kays following the Fibonacci Retracement levels, not the other way round.
Fibonacci Retracement played magic on Noble; it hit a new low @ S$0.63 on Thur 11 Jun 2015, prior to the rebound.Noble Group asks investors to have confidence in company ~ 11 Jun 2015 Richard Elman: "Letter to Shareholders and Colleagues" ~ 11 Jun 2015 Noble: OCBC slashes fair value by 42% to S$0.61 from S$1.05 ~ 11 Jun 2015 Noble: OCBC maintained 'HOLD' fair value S$0.61 ~ 11 Jun 2015 Invesco follows other funds to buy more of Noble after stock dives ~ 5 Jun 2015 Michael Dee: "An Open Memo To Noble Group’s 15,000 Employees" ~ 29 May 2015 Noble Group offers 'interesting value', says US hedge fund manager ~ 15 May 2015 Noble ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, TP S$0.63Noble had a spinning top with long upper shadow @ S$0.68 (+0.035, +5.4%) with extremely high volume done at 126.65m shares on 11 Jun 2014 at 3pm. Immediate support @ S$0.63, strong resistance @ S$0.74.  Noble ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim TP S$0.74, next TP S$0.63Noble had a black marubozu and traded @ S$0.78 (-0.03, -3.7%) with high volume done at 64.3m shares on 29 May 2015 at 2.45pm. Immediate support @ S$0.775, immediate resistance @ S$0.81. Noble — A "Waterfall Decline" with 5-Wave down, Interim TP S$0.925, Next TP S$0.775Noble gapped down with a long-legged doji @ S$1.185 (-0.06, -4.8%) with high volume done at 44m shares on 28 Oct 2014 at 4pm. Immediate support @ S$1.11, strong resistance @ S$1.25, the 200d SMA.  |
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Noble
Jun 12, 2015 0:07:28 GMT 7
Post by sptl123 on Jun 12, 2015 0:07:28 GMT 7
Noble had a spinning top with long upper shadow @ S$0.68 (+0.035, +5.4%) with extremely high volume done at 126.65m shares on 11 Jun 2014 at 3pm. Immediate support @ S$0.63, strong resistance @ S$0.74. Thank you bro Zuolun. NOBLE close at $ 0.705 ( + 0.06, + 9.3%) with extreme high volume of 167.9 million shares traded on 11th June 2015. The volume is one of the highest ever on a up-day; green volume bar. I read that extreme retracement at 238.2% ($ 0.635) will cause price to breakout to 161.8% ($ 0.81). Bro Zuolun, is that true? Have you experience that before? Can hoot tomorrow?  From today closing price to $ 0.81 still have about 12% gain.   |
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Post by zuolun on Jun 12, 2015 8:09:15 GMT 7
sptl123, For swing trades; the entry and exit prices are extremely important. 差之毫厘，失之千里。
If you miss the long-trade, don't chase high, wait patiently to play the short-trade since you like crabs.  - Noble's dead cat bounce with extremely high volume is due to severe short squeeze.
- The EOD closing or the 4th candle is a decisive confirmation on how the BBs play Noble; an unconfirmed chart pattern has no further meaning.
- Long @ S$0.705 or above has higher risk; still can play but must have fast fingers.
- Watch the resistance @ S$0.885 (ref. kumo cloud in Noble's daily chart), once the dead cat bounce is done, it's going to turn down very ugly.
 S&P cuts Noble Group rating outlook to negative from stable ~ 11 Jun 2015 In technical analysis, a stock that has made a new low is one that must be treated with caution and to be avoided buying for longterm investment.Noble ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim TP S$0.50Noble closed with a bullish morning star @ S$0.705 (+0.06, +9.3%) with extremely high volume done at 167,892,200 shares on 11 Jun 2015. Immediate support @ S$0.66, next support @ S$0.63, immediate resistance @ S$0.715, next resistance @ S$0.75.   Gartley Crab pattern
 Noble (weekly) ~ Bearish Gartley Crab Breakout 
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Post by zuolun on Jun 12, 2015 11:37:45 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Jun 14, 2015 14:26:23 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Jun 17, 2015 9:12:21 GMT 7
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Post by oldman on Jun 18, 2015 5:16:08 GMT 7
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Noble
Jun 21, 2015 13:24:12 GMT 7
Post by odie on Jun 21, 2015 13:24:12 GMT 7
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Noble
Jul 30, 2015 20:28:30 GMT 7
Post by odie on Jul 30, 2015 20:28:30 GMT 7
Noble ~ Classic Mushroom-Of-Death chart pattern, interim TP S$0.50Noble closed with a spinning top unchanged @ S$0.72 with 65m shares done on 16 Jun 2015. Immediate support @ S$0.66, next support @ S$0.63, immediate resistance @ S$0.75. bro zuolun, noble results on 13 Aug after national day holidays. they will also release the special report then. Any updates on this since it hit your target price of 50 cts le. Many thanks and hope all is well. Regards odie |
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Noble ~ A "Waterfall Decline" with 5-Wave down, 1st TP S$0.925, 2nd TP S$0.88, 3rd TP S$0.775
From today closing price to $ 0.81 still have about 12% gain. 
