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Post by zuolun on Feb 5, 2015 22:27:15 GMT 7
ZL bro, how do you see NOL? Should long or short? thanks NOL — Turnaround/bottom-picking, the toughest gameplay in the stock marketRead the details / characteristics of the complex bottom below. NOL's share price is moving according to the road map of this pattern. It has pulled back to low of S$0.965 on 3 Feb 2015; watch the classic support @ S$0.93. The Complex Bottom
The complex bottom is a broad group of relatively irregular price patterns that don’t really fit in any other category and are mirror images of the complex top patterns. When these patterns occur after a market downtrend and precede an uptrend, they are referred to as complex bottoms. COMPLEX BOTTOM. A complex head-and-shoulders bottom formation is one of the patterns belonging to this relatively rare group. It is the most common and symmetrical pattern of the group, with the multiple-shoulder variety illustrated here. Once prices break the neckline to the upside, the pattern is considered complete. Prices may retest the neckline, but usually find support at the neckline. As a whole, the group occurs less frequently than some of the more common patterns, but within the group, the complex head-and-shoulders bottom is the most common. It is also the most symmetrical of the group. This pattern consists of multiple heads and/or multiple shoulders and is just as, if not more, reliable than the standard variety of head and shoulders. The complex head and multiple shoulders bottom occurs more frequently than the multiple-head variety, and they usually have the same number of shoulders per side. The figure shows a complex head-and-shoulders bottom with one head and two shoulders on each side. The shoulders usually form at about the same level, and the neckline is relatively horizontal. However, this describes the typical pattern, and exceptions do occur. The shoulders might form at slightly different levels, or the neckline might slope from one side to the other. In any case, the pattern is completed when prices break out above the neckline and start a new uptrend. On occasion, prices will retest the neckline but find support and continue to rally. The pattern is said to have failed if the price breaks back below the neckline. Like the complex top, the complex bottom has no consistently repeated volume pattern of significant predictive use. NOL — Complex head and shoulder bottom formation, Neckline @ S$1.035NOL had a long white marubozu @ S$1.05 (+0.045, +4.5%) with 16.2m shares done on 21 Jan 2015 at 3.20pm. Immediate support @ S$0.985, immediate resistance @ S$1.07.
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NOL
Feb 17, 2015 12:59:38 GMT 7
Post by zuolun on Feb 17, 2015 12:59:38 GMT 7
NOL: Request for Trading Halt 17-Feb-2015 13:21:22
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NOL
Feb 18, 2015 6:13:34 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Feb 18, 2015 6:13:34 GMT 7
NOL confirms sale of APL Logistics to Kintetsu World Express for $1.2bn ~ NOL reported last Friday a FY2014 net loss of US$260m, much bigger than the US$76m loss in the previous year. Revenue declined 2% to US$8.6b. The results marked three straight years of losses for the company. ~ 17 Feb 2015 NOL — Turnaround/bottom-picking, the toughest gameplay in the stock marketRead the details / characteristics of the complex bottom below. NOL's share price is moving according to the road map of this pattern. It has pulled back to low of S$0.965 on 3 Feb 2015; watch the classic support @ S$0.93. NOL — Complex head and shoulder bottom formation, Neckline @ S$1.035NOL had a long white marubozu @ S$1.05 (+0.045, +4.5%) with 16.2m shares done on 21 Jan 2015 at 3.20pm. Immediate support @ S$0.985, immediate resistance @ S$1.07.
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NOL
Feb 21, 2015 18:30:22 GMT 7
Post by zuolun on Feb 21, 2015 18:30:22 GMT 7
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NOL
Feb 21, 2015 18:40:21 GMT 7
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Post by odie on Feb 21, 2015 18:40:21 GMT 7
Happy new year, zuolun bro Gong Xi Fa Cai It is great to see different views from the different houses As a good friend commented, this makes the market I don't think NOL will pay a special dividend for sale of APL logistics as the sales proceeds will be used to repay the debt of NOL
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Post by zuolun on Feb 21, 2015 18:52:36 GMT 7
Happy new year, zuolun bro Gong Xi Fa Cai It is great to see different views from the different houses As a good friend commented, this makes the market I don't think NOL will pay a special dividend for sale of APL logistics as the sales proceeds will be used to repay the debt of NOL odie, same to you.
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Post by sptl123 on Feb 21, 2015 23:27:57 GMT 7
Does these analysts really practice what they preaches ? Very ugly and shameful for those house/analyst to issue buy call with bad intention. Singapore should have a watch dog body to monitor and to shame those who consistently and regularity making bad calls.
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Post by zuolun on Feb 22, 2015 5:24:52 GMT 7
Does these analysts really practice what they preaches ? Very ugly and shameful for those house/analyst to issue buy call with bad intention. Singapore should have a watch dog body to monitor and to shame those who consistently and regularity making bad calls. Anonymous analysts are wreaking havoc in the Asian markets ~ 18 Feb 2015 “MAS should make sure analysts do not use their research for their own agenda.”Ha ha. I too read brokers' reports for its 'content' rather than its price recommendations. Content to me is the additional information that the broker's report contain with regards to the fundamentals. Similarly, I read magazine reports with the same amount of caution as I am aware of the amount of 'company marketing' that usually accompanies such reports. Guess this is the way the media works.... I scratch your back, you scratch mine. Nothing kinky OK? oldman, Besides using TA and FA, I use SA = Situation Analysis on RH Petrogas and SIA.
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Post by zuolun on Mar 16, 2015 14:28:31 GMT 7
sptl123, In an uptrend support holds, in a downtrend support breaks. NOL hits low of S$0.93 today, my gut-feel tells me that NOL is likely to breakdown and retest the last low @ S$0.735. Alternative view (-ve) :NOL ~ Double Top Formation, critical support @ S$0.93NOL traded unchanged @ S$0.945 with 1.59m shares done on 16 Mar 2015 at 3.20pm. Critical support @ S$0.93, immediate resistance @ S$0.96. If the critical support @ S$0.93 is broken convincingly with extremely high volume, the bullish complex inverse head and shoulder pattern will be invalid and should the double top pattern materialize, it would be a horrible nightmare for the bulls because the price will plunge all the way down to retest the last low @ S$0.735 forming a double bottom pattern. The probability of NOL retesting the last low @ S$0.735 is similar to the WTI oil chart.
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NOL
Mar 16, 2015 16:14:09 GMT 7
Post by sptl123 on Mar 16, 2015 16:14:09 GMT 7
sptl123, In an uptrend support holds, in a downtrend support breaks. NOL hits low of S$0.93 today, my gut-feel tells me that NOL is likely to breakdown and retest the last low @ S$0.735. Thank you Bro Zuolun. Just to stand on the safe side; I have decided and had reduce 53% of my holding in NOL. Cheers
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Post by zuolun on Mar 16, 2015 22:21:30 GMT 7
sptl123, In an uptrend support holds, in a downtrend support breaks. NOL hits low of S$0.93 today, my gut-feel tells me that NOL is likely to breakdown and retest the last low @ S$0.735. Thank you Bro Zuolun. Just to stand on the safe side; I have decided and had reduce 53% of my holding in NOL. Cheers sptl123, Always follow the primary trend: In an uptrend support holds, in a downtrend support breaks. NOL now is the same as Cosco then, my friend saw a double bottom, I saw a H&S. Example 2: CoscoAnother friend loved betting big on Cosco... In Aug 2011, he gambled on a double-bottom reversal and went to long 200 lots Cosco @ S$1.80+ via CFD. Within a couple of days, Cosco collapsed and he was forced to cut loss at > 20% approx. S$80,000 (excluding commission and other charges). This friend used to coach me on TA and he had > 10 years of trading experience in the stock market, then. The W-Shaped on VARD now is similar to the one on Cosco then, it always reminds me of how my friend burned a big hole in his pocket.
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NOL
Mar 17, 2015 8:13:15 GMT 7
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Post by sptl123 on Mar 17, 2015 8:13:15 GMT 7
NOL – MER upgrades stock from Underperform to Outperform 17 Mar 15
On 10 March 2015, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research report that upgraded NOL from Underperform to Outperform following their forecast that the company will be profitable this year. MER now sees a 44% potential upside to NOL’s share price, raising their price target from $0.650 to $1.40. MER’s positive view on NOL is due to the company’s relatively higher exposure to the transpacific route and its lower chartered cost from expiry of chartered vessels…
Higher exposure to transpacific and lower charter costs: Ignoring the US$959m exceptional gain from logistics disposal, MER expects NOL to return to 2015 pre-exceptional profit of US$45m – its first pre-exceptional profit since 2010. MER is turning more optimistic on the transpacific route as they estimate annual contracts to be concluded marginally higher but transpacific earnings to benefit from lower costs, especially bunker. NOL has the highest exposure to the transpacific route among the stocks under our coverage. Further, earnings should also benefit from lower charter costs as 19 chartered vessels expire this year.
Container shipping sector – turning positive: MER turns optimistic on the container shipping sector as they expect it to be profitable in 2015 due to the current unique transpacific situation. MER believes the mix of US west coast port congestion problems, air transport remaining an expensive option and high transpacific spot rates is likely to lead to higher transpacific annual contract prices. In MER’s view, pricing power has shifted to container lines as shippers are likely to pay higher rates to secure space and service reliability. Asia Europe remains a problem given expected +14,000 TEU newbuild deliveries but MER believes rates have bottomed due to the traditional CNY lull. However, MER forecasts earnings to decline in 2016 as the sector returns to industry fundamentals, which is supply imbalance.
Earnings and target price revision
Based on revised freight rate and unit cost assumptions, MER is forecasting NOL to report 2015-2017 earnings of US$1.0bn, losses of US$14m and losses US$21m, respectively. This compares to previous forecast of net losses in 2015 and 2016 of -US$186m and -US$123m, respectively.
MER’s price catalyst
12-month price target: S$1.40 based on a Price to Book methodology.
Catalyst: Smaller loss in the first quarter of 2015, transpacific annual contracts concluded higher
MER’s action and recommendation
Given MER is forecasting NOL to be profitable this year, MER has moved their price target methodology to 1.1x mid-cycle price-to-book, which translates to a S$1.40 price target. With a 44% potential upside, MER upgrades NOL to Outperform from Underperform.
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NOL
Mar 19, 2015 14:34:06 GMT 7
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Post by zuolun on Mar 19, 2015 14:34:06 GMT 7
sptl123, I forgot to tell you this important msg...Whenever you read MER's review(s) on all stocks; make sure you go check the latest status/details of the respective structured warrants (call and put) issued by MER. 他说上涨机率有70%,但他却选择放空? 看懂了,你就不会再问别人看涨看跌。 ~ 10 Mar 2015 NOL – MER upgrades stock from Underperform to Outperform 17 Mar 15 On 10 March 2015, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research report that upgraded NOL from Underperform to Outperform following their forecast that the company will be profitable this year. MER now sees a 44% potential upside to NOL’s share price, raising their price target from $0.650 to $1.40. MER’s positive view on NOL is due to the company’s relatively higher exposure to the transpacific route and its lower chartered cost from expiry of chartered vessels… Higher exposure to transpacific and lower charter costs: Ignoring the US$959m exceptional gain from logistics disposal, MER expects NOL to return to 2015 pre-exceptional profit of US$45m – its first pre-exceptional profit since 2010. MER is turning more optimistic on the transpacific route as they estimate annual contracts to be concluded marginally higher but transpacific earnings to benefit from lower costs, especially bunker. NOL has the highest exposure to the transpacific route among the stocks under our coverage. Further, earnings should also benefit from lower charter costs as 19 chartered vessels expire this year. Container shipping sector – turning positive: MER turns optimistic on the container shipping sector as they expect it to be profitable in 2015 due to the current unique transpacific situation. MER believes the mix of US west coast port congestion problems, air transport remaining an expensive option and high transpacific spot rates is likely to lead to higher transpacific annual contract prices. In MER’s view, pricing power has shifted to container lines as shippers are likely to pay higher rates to secure space and service reliability. Asia Europe remains a problem given expected +14,000 TEU newbuild deliveries but MER believes rates have bottomed due to the traditional CNY lull. However, MER forecasts earnings to decline in 2016 as the sector returns to industry fundamentals, which is supply imbalance. Earnings and target price revisionBased on revised freight rate and unit cost assumptions, MER is forecasting NOL to report 2015-2017 earnings of US$1.0bn, losses of US$14m and losses US$21m, respectively. This compares to previous forecast of net losses in 2015 and 2016 of -US$186m and -US$123m, respectively. MER’s price catalyst12-month price target: S$1.40 based on a Price to Book methodology. Catalyst: Smaller loss in the first quarter of 2015, transpacific annual contracts concluded higher MER’s action and recommendationGiven MER is forecasting NOL to be profitable this year, MER has moved their price target methodology to 1.1x mid-cycle price-to-book, which translates to a S$1.40 price target. With a 44% potential upside, MER upgrades NOL to Outperform from Underperform.
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Post by sptl123 on Mar 19, 2015 14:56:18 GMT 7
General Zuolun果然是老江湖, all his tricks are inside your pocket. I will now classify this soldier MER as 豬朋狗友;騙子. sptl123, I forgot to tell you this important msg...Whenever you read MER's review(s) on all stocks; make sure you go check the latest status/details of the respective structured warrants (call and put) issued by MER. 他说上涨机率有70%,但他却选择放空? 看懂了,你就不会再问别人看涨看跌。 ~ 10 Mar 2015 NOL – MER upgrades stock from Underperform to Outperform 17 Mar 15 On 10 March 2015, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research report that upgraded NOL from Underperform to Outperform following their forecast that the company will be profitable this year. MER now sees a 44% potential upside to NOL’s share price, raising their price target from $0.650 to $1.40. MER’s positive view on NOL is due to the company’s relatively higher exposure to the transpacific route and its lower chartered cost from expiry of chartered vessels… Higher exposure to transpacific and lower charter costs: Ignoring the US$959m exceptional gain from logistics disposal, MER expects NOL to return to 2015 pre-exceptional profit of US$45m – its first pre-exceptional profit since 2010. MER is turning more optimistic on the transpacific route as they estimate annual contracts to be concluded marginally higher but transpacific earnings to benefit from lower costs, especially bunker. NOL has the highest exposure to the transpacific route among the stocks under our coverage. Further, earnings should also benefit from lower charter costs as 19 chartered vessels expire this year. Container shipping sector – turning positive: MER turns optimistic on the container shipping sector as they expect it to be profitable in 2015 due to the current unique transpacific situation. MER believes the mix of US west coast port congestion problems, air transport remaining an expensive option and high transpacific spot rates is likely to lead to higher transpacific annual contract prices. In MER’s view, pricing power has shifted to container lines as shippers are likely to pay higher rates to secure space and service reliability. Asia Europe remains a problem given expected +14,000 TEU newbuild deliveries but MER believes rates have bottomed due to the traditional CNY lull. However, MER forecasts earnings to decline in 2016 as the sector returns to industry fundamentals, which is supply imbalance. Earnings and target price revisionBased on revised freight rate and unit cost assumptions, MER is forecasting NOL to report 2015-2017 earnings of US$1.0bn, losses of US$14m and losses US$21m, respectively. This compares to previous forecast of net losses in 2015 and 2016 of -US$186m and -US$123m, respectively. MER’s price catalyst12-month price target: S$1.40 based on a Price to Book methodology. Catalyst: Smaller loss in the first quarter of 2015, transpacific annual contracts concluded higher MER’s action and recommendationGiven MER is forecasting NOL to be profitable this year, MER has moved their price target methodology to 1.1x mid-cycle price-to-book, which translates to a S$1.40 price target. With a 44% potential upside, MER upgrades NOL to Outperform from Underperform.
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Post by pain on Mar 20, 2015 7:09:51 GMT 7
Bro Zuolun is 'old glue'. Lol. Someone told me that his TA analysis is 80% accurate.
My opinion is closer to 90%.:thumbup:
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